International relations | UM scholar: Global diplomacy on precipice of radical transformation

Donald Trump

The triangular relationship between China, Russia and the U.S. is poised for a radical transformation on a scale not seen since the Cold War, speculated a scholar at the University of Macau (UM) in an interview with the Times this week.

The transformation will be the result of fundamental policy shifts initiated by President-elect Donald Trump that are likely to redefine the basis of U.S. relations with both Russia and China.

Trump is expected to be inaugurated as U.S. president tomorrow (Macau time).

While it remains unclear which, if any, of his campaign pledges will be implemented in the coming years, Trump’s rhetoric since his election victory in November has signaled both worsening relations with China and an improvement with fellow ‘strongman’ Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The three countries top the list of the world’s most powerful and influential, and the triangular relationship between them has the potential to define the course of global diplomacy for decades.

Michael Share, a UM scholar specializing in Russian-Chinese relations, told the Times that the change in diplomatic policy reflects a departure from the globalist thinking of recent presidents and a return to 19th-century geopolitical concepts such as economic protectionism, spheres of influence and the balance of power.

Share said such a radical recalibration has not been seen since Nixon’s 1972 state visit to China.

The 1972 visit irrevocably damaged the Sino-Soviet relationship and ushered in a new era of U.S.-China cooperation after Chinese leader Mao Zedong opted to distance his country from its former benefactor. A similar choice could be presented before the Russian president in 2017.

“Better relations with Russia and worse relations with China […] could put Putin into a very difficult situation as he might be forced to choose between [China and the U.S.],” Share told the Times. Either way “Russia will continue to play a stronger role in U.S.-China relations.”

The scope for conflict in Sino-U.S. relations has widened since Trump was confirmed as President-elect last year.

Trump’s threat to escalate trade tensions through the application of tariffs on Chinese goods and to rule out the axiom of the “One China” policy has invited Beijing to respond in kind; warning of economic retaliation and the possibility of reclaiming the island-state of Taiwan by force if necessary.

Representatives from Trump’s team have claimed that they are confident the U.S. would come out on top in a trade war with China. However, during Beijing’s charm offensive in Davos this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that there could be no winners in a trade war.

While it is somewhat a sign of the times that in 2017 it would fall to the ‘socialist’ giant of China to school the ‘capitalist’ West in the merits of free trade and the dangers of protectionism, Xi’s courting this week represents a view ultimately shared by others.

Share said that not only could there be no winners in a China-U.S. trade war, but that the two countries’ economic interdependence would put the health of the entire global economy at risk, and would likely plunge it into an economic recession.

“Trump is considering placing tariffs on Chinese goods [of] up to 50 percent, which the Chinese say violates WTO and bilateral trade terms. In return, China would reciprocate, but both sides would lose out so badly that the whole world would go into [economic] depression,” he said.

The problem of Taiwan represents an even thornier issue in Beijing’s side, one that Share believes holds the key to the legitimacy of the Chinese regime.

“China will consider recovering Taiwan by force, because [the issue] is fundamental to China. If the regime loses [Taiwan], then it loses its legitimacy,” he said.

Moreover, a failure to peacefully reunite Taiwan with the mainland might discredit Deng Xiaoping’s “One Country, Two Systems” policy that had been subsequently extended to Macau and Hong Kong in their respective Joint Declarations with Portugal and Britain.

“If China goes into Taiwan, there will be a war and there will be nothing left of Taiwan. […] If Taiwan goes south, Hong Kong and Macau will also go south,” predicted Share.

In yet another indication of history repeating itself, the UM scholar discussed rumors of a Trump-Putin meeting to be scheduled shortly after Trump’s inauguration.

“When he becomes president, it is thought that Trump will host a summit with Putin. Rumor is that it will be held in Reykjavik and that it will involve a significant reduction in nuclear weapons in return for a lifting of sanctions.”

The summit, if confirmed, would be reminiscent of one held in the Icelandic capital in 1986 between U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, in a failed attempt to mutually reduce nuclear stockpiles.

As of 2014, there remain an estimated 15,000 nuclear warheads between the stockpiles of the U.S. and Russia, with each commanding far more than the rest of the world’s nuclear powers combined.

19th century principles

Michael Share told the Times that the incoming U.S. president was threatening to return the world’s largest economy to principles founded centuries before he was born, namely ‘spheres of influence’ and the ‘balance of power’. The balance of power refers to an attempt by states to sign alliances and agreements with the aim of preventing the domination of any one power. Spheres of influence denote geographic areas comprising minor powers and regional powers that fall under the protection or interest of more powerful patrons. “Xi, Putin, Trump are all strongmen, while Europe is divided and weak,” said Share, which means the rules of global diplomacy might be left up to China, Russia and the U.S. to decide.