AMCM: Macau poised for economic growth amid tourism boost in 2025

The city’s economy is on track for continued recovery, driven by sustainable tourism, rising non-gaming investments, and a stable financial system, according to the Monetary Authority of Macau (AMCM).

The authority expects external demand to remain strong, spurred by improvements in tourist facilities and evolving consumer preferences.

Additionally, stimulus policies introduced by the Central Government in September are anticipated to enhance consumer sentiment in mainland China, further benefiting Macau’s tourism industry.

It was in September 2024 when Beijing announced a raft of monetary stimulus, property market support and capital market strengthening measures to boost the country’s economic development.

The recent easing of travel restrictions for Zhuhai residents, effective January 1, has also contributed to an influx of visitors, reinforcing economic momentum.

The AMCM’s Research and Statistics Department predicts that these factors will help sustain external demand and consolidate Macau’s economic recovery, as cited in a report by Jornal Tribuna de Macau.

In its first Monetary and Financial Stability Review for 2025, the authority emphasized that the city’s strong fiscal and external balances would safeguard the region from negative global economic conditions.

However, it noted that the rapid recovery observed in the past two years is expected to normalize, leading to moderate economic growth in 2025.

While the report refrains from specific GDP forecasts, previous projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Macau’s economy to grow by 10.6% in 2024 and 7.3% in 2025.

Official data indicate that Macau’s GDP expanded by 4.7% in the third quarter of 2024, with an overall growth of 11.5% in the first nine months of the year.

Despite sequential slowdowns due to a high comparison base and a dip in gaming revenue from July to September, GDP still reached approximately 301 billion patacas, an 86.3% recovery compared to 2019 levels.

Inflation and  Labor Market

The AMCM forecasts a slight increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025, following a decrease in inflation from 0.94% in 2023 to 0.74% in 2024. Domestic inflationary pressures are expected to rise moderately alongside growing aggregate demand, while external inflationary pressures should remain contained.

The labor market is projected to remain resilient amid favorable economic conditions. The AMCM emphasized that imported workers will continue to complement the local labor force, ensuring stability in employment.

The overall unemployment rate stood at 1.8% in 2024, marking a 0.9 percentage-point decrease from the previous year and the lowest since 2019’s 1.7%. The resident unemployment rate also declined by one percentage point to 2.4%.

Regional Integration

The AMCM also highlights that strengthening financial ties with mainland China will expand opportunities in the bond market, asset management, and renminbi-based transactions.

These efforts aim to solidify Macau’s role as a financial bridge between China and Portuguese-speaking countries. By broadening its economic drivers and optimizing its industrial structure, the city aims to enhance macroeconomic stability and fortify itself against external shocks, paving the way for sustainable development.

According to the AMCM, the government’s debt-free status provides ample policy space to maintain macroeconomic stability.

Despite these positive indicators, the city’s financial sector faces some challenges.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has implemented three interest rate cuts since September 2024, yet financing costs remain high. If this trend persists, profitability in the banking sector could be affected. However, the AMCM reassures that banks remain well-capitalized and liquid, ensuring financial stability and sufficient resources to meet future credit demand.