Revenues drop 5.6% in January; analysts say decline was expected

Revenues of local casinos dropped by 5.6% in January, totaling MOP18.254 billion, according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.

This figure contrasts with the gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP19.337 billion reported in January last year.

The sum recorded in January 2025 also represented a 0.29% increase month-over-month compared to December of last year.

Nevertheless, it marks a cold start to a year in which the government projected a GGR of MOP240 billion, averaging MOP20 billion per month.

January’s result at the local casinos was not entirely surprising, as several analysts had projected a year-over-year decline. However, these projections anticipated a drop of about 4%, meaning the actual results exceeded those expectations.

Among those analysts were those at JP Morgan, who stated, “January 2024 presented a difficult comparable for January 2025, as high VIP baccarat volumes and solid hold rates resulted in a strong opening month last year.”

Market observers had been reporting “softer play in the high-roller rooms,” indicating that a higher share of revenue came from the mass market.

Another factor noted this year was the division of the Spring Festival’s Golden Week into two parts—four days in January and another four in February. The second half of these eight days traditionally sees more spending and visitation to Macau.

Last year, the first day of the Lunar New Year fell on February 10, with the eight days of the Golden Week extended by weekends.

A similar opinion was expressed by local gaming industry expert Ben Lee, who, in an interview with public broadcaster TDM, pointed out that the Golden Week was split between January and February. Lee noted that gamblers typically only travel during this period after the second day of the Lunar New Year.

Lee mentioned that this factor caused the January results to be slightly lower than expected, which will likely be compensated for in this month’s results.

The same expert also noted that since the pandemic, the influx of visitors to Macau has not correlated with casino results, rejecting the idea that the low results were due to a lower turnout of visitors.

According to TDM, Lee believes the government’s projected GGR of MOP240 billion for 2025 is conservative.

JP Morgan analysts also indicated that January’s GGR was likely affected by fewer trips from mainland visitors to Macau during the latter half of the month due to preparations for the Lunar New Year.

These analysts expect February’s GGR to grow between 3% and 5%, essentially leveling the 2025 GGR results with 2024’s after the first two months of the year.