January GGR beats analysts’ projections as revenues hit MOP19b

Macau’s casino revenues surged by up to 67% year-on-year in January to MOP19.3 billion, beating analysts estimates as the sector continually recovers ahead of the Chinese New Year.

Data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau Gross gaming yesterday shows that January result was better the median analyst estimate of a 63.3% year-on-year increase, and has returned to 78% of the pre-pandemic levels.

Morgan Stanley has forecasted MOP18.8 billion and the market’s general forecast was MOP18.9 billion, Morgan Stanley released a research report saying.

The daily average GGR stands at MOP624 million, indicating upside room as compared with the market’s expectation of an average daily GGR of MOP626 million for the whole year.

Morgan Stanley said that the GGR in January 2024 has recovered to about 78% of the same period in 2019, representing a further improvement from the recovery of 75% in 4Q23, as cited in reports.

The brokerage also forecasted that the GGR for February can reach MOP20 billion, and that the average daily GGR will reach MOP691 million, up 4% month-on-month, expecting to see expected to see strong takings during the Lunar New Year

Hotel occupancy is similar to the 2019 levels, and visitation could be boosted by concerts during the holiday, according to Morgan Stanley. Casinos could see average daily gaming revenue return to 78% of the 2019 level and exceed October’s National Day holiday by 9%, the bank estimates.

A Bloomberg survey of eight brokerages shows that gaming revenue in the city is expected to return to 78% of the pre-Covid level this year, with mass-market takings set to beat 2019’s level by 14%.

Meanwhile, a report by Fitch recently shows that mass market baccarat has almost fully recovered to 2019 levels, particularly in the premium mass segment, which is Wynn’s target market. Mass market baccarat reached 91% of the full year 2019 levels, although fourth quarter of 2023 levels exceeded the same period in 2019 levels.