Macau’s gross gaming revenue is forecast to rise 5-6% in 2026 on strength in the mass and slot markets, JP Morgan analysts said in a new research note.
The investment bank expects mass and slot GGR to increase 7-8% next year. VIP revenue, however, is projected to decline around 5%, according to the bank. This follows a high comparison base after VIP’s strong 2025 performance.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian forecast moderate but sustainable growth for the gaming market in their recent note, projecting 5-6% top-line growth in 2026, with industry profit expansion of 6-7% slightly outpacing it.
“We forecast the industry profit growth (+6–7%) to finally – albeit modestly – outpace top-line growth (+5-6%) in 2026E,” the analysts wrote.
This would narrow the profit flow-through gap seen in 2025, when EBITDA growth trailed overall GGR gains.
Momentum accelerated quarterly, with each period topping expectations and seasonal norms. The fourth quarter delivered the city’s strongest revenue in six years. JP Morgan said the result confirmed a sustained recovery trend after a slow start to the year.
December GGR rose 14.8% year-over-year to MOP20.9 billion, hitting 91% of pre-pandemic levels. “The December print was slightly below consensus, but this reflects expectation creep,” JP Morgan analysts said.
Upward revisions in prior weeks drove the gap, not softening demand.
The full-year GGR surged 9% to MOP247.4 billion, nearly double the bank’s initial 5% forecast.
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