JP Morgan: GGR holds steady in January

JP Morgan estimated Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) at MOP 17.8 billion for the first 25 days of January, citing its own channel checks.

Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian noted that last week’s run rate held at MOP693 million per day, remaining steady week on week despite a lower VIP win rate, while daily revenue of MOP 712 million was recorded through January 25.

This pace marks a “pretty solid” improvement over December’s daily average of MOP624 million, the analysts commented.

Regarding January’s outlook, the analysts said, “We are still comfortable modeling January GGR to grow 15–20% year on year, likely toward the high end of this range, which in turn should allow GGR to grow by around 13% in 2M26 and 1Q26.”

Earlier this month, JP Morgan cut its 2026 forecast for industry-adjusted EBITDA among Macau’s six operators to MOP71.9 billion. The revised estimate still reflects a 5.0% increase over the bank’s MOP68.5 billion projection for 2025, for which operator results have yet to be reported.

The bank also tempered its outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, recently trimming Macau industry EBITDA expectations by 3% due to higher operating expenses and weaker flow-through.

It wrote, “Some of the headwinds are seasonal or one-off, but two straight quarters of softer margins may suggest a trend – at least that’s what investors may feel in the near term.”

JP Morgan downgraded its Macau outlook to “selective.” NS