Libya’s uncertain truce prospects dog international meeting

German Chancellor Angela Merkel waits for the arrival of guests at the chancellery ahead of a conference on Libya

An international conclave meant to bring together Libya’s warring leaders and their foreign supporters is getting under way in Berlin as questions hover over the prospects for a proposed truce that’s been signed by only one side.
The meeting yesterday was called with the aim of ending both foreign intervention in Libya’s civil war and violations of the United Nations arms embargo that have been exacerbated by the reported entry of Russian mercenaries and Turkey into the conflict. If the commander leading the monthslong assault on the Libyan capital, Tripoli, relents and signs the truce deal, then the next phase would involve Libyan officials meeting to unite the country’s divided institutions and hold elections for the first time since 2014.
Ahead of the Berlin conference, the commander, Khalifa Haftar, blocked oil exports at ports under his control, slashing Libya’s output by more than half. His rival, the internationally recognized Libyan prime minister, Fayez al-Sarraj, deemed that show of force a sign Haftar isn’t ready for peace.
Haftar walked out of truce talks in Moscow on Wednesday as a provisional cease-fire was shakily holding around Tripoli. Failure to bring him on board in Berlin risks seeing the holder of Africa’s largest proven oil reserves spiral into a major conflagration drawing in regional and international powers even deeper, as happened in Syria.

Oil Uncertainty
Libya has been in turmoil since the 2011 NATO-backed ouster of Muammar Qaddafi, which ushered in years of instability that has left thousands dead, allowed Islamist extremists to dig in, and divided the country between rival administrations in Tripoli and the eastern city of Tobruk.
The North African nation is also a gateway for refugees into Europe, so an end to the chaos there would be a critical achievement for governments on the continent grappling with rising anti-immigrant sentiment. It would also remove a key uncertainty for the oil market.
A viable truce, however, would be a very tall order after years of failed efforts. Serious questions would hover over the ability to monitor forces and get ragtag fighters to put down guns.
Berlin Document
The Berlin meeting will be based on a draft document that covers issues including an arms embargo, distribution of oil exports and eventual elections, according to an official with direct knowledge of the draft. It’s possible the document will be very broad in order to get people to sign it, the person said, with the biggest challenge being to get key parties to then implement it.
Russia is prepared to lean on Haftar to work towards a peace process, an official said, although Haftar would need to accept that now is the time to stop fighting and trade in his gains for a decent deal. Part of the calculus for Moscow is to avoid escalating the rivalry with Turkey in Libya that risks morphing into conflict, the person said.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, “this is an opportunity to play the role of an arbiter, a significant player,” said Grigoriy Lukyanov, a Libya expert at the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council. “Putin provides his resource of an influential figure in the Middle East for a good price.”
Russia and Turkey are jockeying for influence in the Mediterranean, and have been key in the latest push for a Libyan cease-fire. Russian mercenaries back Haftar’s forces, officials have told Bloomberg, as do Egypt and the U.A.E., who see him as a bulwark against Islamic extremists. Turkish soldiers are training forces loyal to Sarraj, and Turkish-backed Syrian rebels have also joined the conflict.
Turkey recently signed a maritime border deal with Sarraj’s government that would be key to Ankara’s aspirations for more clout in the resource-rich waters of the Mediterranean. Turkish contractors would also like to revive billions of dollars in contracts abandoned in the chaos after Qaddafi’s overthrow.
Access to Libyan oil deals is a major incentive for Putin, who may also use his leverage to secure concessions from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in both Libya and Syria.

More Engaged
The U.S. has been paying more attention to the Libyan conflict since Russia’s entry, and is being represented in Berlin by Secreatary of State Mike Pompeo. Washington had held Libya at arm’s length since the killing of the American ambassador in Benghazi in 2012, and under President Donald Trump, sent mixed messages to Libya’s rival administrations. But it became more involved in pushing for an end to the fighting after Russian mercenaries reportedly were deployed in September.
The U.S. has a counter-terrorism mission in Libya, and its operations have been complicated by the fighting, a State Department official said on condition of anonymity. The broadening Libyan conflict is looking increasingly like Syria, which is why the whole international community is getting together in Germany, said the official, who wasn’t authorized to speak on the record. Samer Khalil Al-Atrush, Patrick Donahue & Ilya Arkhipov, Bloomberg