Macau’s economy contracted by one-fifth in 2015

Macau’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2015 decreased by 14.4 percent year-on-
year in real terms (after accounting for inflation), according to information released yesterday by the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). It declined by 20.3 percent year-on-year across the entire year of 2015.
The fourth quarter marks a considerable deceleration from the 21 percent year-on-year decline measured in the third quarter. Meanwhile the economic contractions measured in the first and second quarters of 2015 were revised upwards slightly to -21.9 percent and -23.7 percent.
During the last quarter of 2015 the region’s total exports of goods and services declined by 12.7 percent and 19.1 percent respectively, weighed down by the fall in visitor arrivals and tourist spending. Likewise, imports of goods and services decreased by 13.8 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively.
The figures released by DSEC complete the economic picture for 2015. For the whole year Macau’s GDP diminished by 20.3 percent in real terms when compared with the whole of 2014. GDP amounted to MOP368.7 billion in 2015 and per-capita GDP was MOP574,790.
Economic analysts have put this continual decline down to the long-term structural issues in Macau’s gaming sector, exacerbated by President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign that continues to see high rollers avoid the MSAR.
DSEC said that the economic decline last year was “mainly due to the continuous decrease in exports of services,” down by 26.8 percent year-on-year, led by the decline in exports of gaming services (-33.4 percent) and other tourism services (-11.6 percent). Overall, imports of services fell by 3.4 percent.
While exports and imports of goods in the MSAR rose at a slower rate in 2015, they still measured an overall growth rate of 10.2 percent and 0.1 percent year-on-year, respectively.
However, the annual decline in the second half of the year (-17.7 percent) was significantly smaller than that observed in the first half (-22.8 percent).
DSEC also noted that domestic demand increased in 2015 year-
on-year, bringing its relative importance to GDP up from 46.6 percent in 2014 to 59.3 percent in 2015, of which the share of private consumption expenditure (25.7 percent), government final consumption expenditure (9.5 percent) and investment (24.2 percent) rose by 5.8, 2.5 and 4.5 percentage points respectively.
The bureau notes that major revisions to GDP are regularly conducted, which includes the incorporation of the latest international statistical standards and the inclusion of new data sources. The revisions are intended to give a more accurate understanding of Macau’s economy.
Under the revision, Macau economic growth for 2014 was revised down to -0.9 percent for the year, reflecting the almost-balanced contrast between the first half of 2014 and the second half, in which Macau’s gaming slump began to gain momentum. DB