Macron is ‘the furthering of the European project’

Eric Sautedé

The recent French presidential elections were discussed last week at the France Macau Business Association (FMBA) breakfast meeting held at Sofitel Macau at Ponte 16. French political scientist, Eric Sautedé, was invited to review the election’s consequences for both Europe and China.

Speaking to the Times, Sautedé said, “[The election of Emmanuel Macron] is both a continuation and a development; a further integration of Europe.”

The political scientist explained that on this occasion, “Europe invited herself into the debate over the presidential election, when traditionally the candidates used Europe as a kind of ‘scapegoat’ for failures or policies gone wrong. This time around, we saw a clear division of pro and cons regarding [the idea of the European project],” noting that most of the election candidates opposed – or at least had significant reservations – about such a project.

By contrast, Macron defended the European project and had a precise strategy for how this project should be furthered, by protecting and integrating keys areas such as finance, budgeting and other national policies concerning the environment and taxation.

In Sautedé’s opinion, one of Macron’s biggest challenges for his presidency is the fact that his political program is ‘black and white’, and “when you don’t have the support of a party you can not fail.” Sautedé noted that Macron will be held directly accountable for any failures as he is subject to the very high expectations of those who voted for him.

Questioned on whether the idea of a European project led to his election, Sautedé remarked, “not all people who voted for him agree with all these ideas. Especially during the second round, a lot of people voted against Marine Le Pen.”

As to the extent to which this result will have implications on relations between France and China, the guest speaker remarked that “a lot of deals were called off last year [between China and European countries]” because Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the USA seemed more attractive to Chinese investors than in Europe. He added, “of course, with [Donald] Trump [in the US presidency] we will see what happens this year.”

Nevertheless, he still thinks the election outcome was very positive – not just for France but for all European Union countries. “China has a lot of fund reserves, not just in USD but also in EUR and other currencies, and if people vote against the European project and for a ‘Frexit’ [as Le Pen was advocating], China would have a lot to lose.”

“China was very supportive toward Macron, especially as he supported their own interests,” he said, noting that Macron had also already given clear signs of being a great supporter of the “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative, which put China and France on the same page.

“While China [through OBOR] wants to play an important role in the globalization process, the idea of globalization is also present in Macron’s call for greater integration of Europe,” Sautedé explained, noting that values such as equality and solidarity are said by political scientists to have been “somehow lost, especially after the [economic] crises of 2008. […] We can’t forget that there are many European countries that are seeing the OBOR as a very important initiative in terms of creating infrastructures that they need.”

He suggests that the potential impact for Macau is similar, and that although the discourse has “a kind of propaganda form with a lot of empty words, it does make sense for Macau. There is a wish [pushed by the Central government] for Macau to play a role with the Portuguese-speaking countries, and this initiative might be the channel for this ‘bridge’ to materialize.”

“Macau is better suited than Hong Kong for such a task, especially because Hong Kong is now very suspicious about everything that comes from the central authorities,” Sautedé said. “This is an opportunity that foreign [owned] businesses have seen and the casino industry has seen too – it is only now the local businesses are realizing it because they lacked the imagination to perceive it before. They were very narrow minded and finally now they seem to have discovered something [that was there all along]; namely, that Macau has a Portuguese heritage and this can be used for profit.”

During the talk, Sautedé also addressed the fact that many members of the new French government led by Macron, currently have or formerly had close connections with China. He anticipates that the historical relations between the two countries are likely to be “back on the right track.” He also remarked that France needs to further develop areas that are targeted by Chinese investment. Two important fields for investment are technology-based industries and the energy industry.

Bilateral relations between France and India are also expected to be fostered under Macron’s leadership.