Mass market lags despite 24% January GGR rise: Analyst

Casinos in Macau posted gross gaming revenue of MOP22.63 billion (USD2.82 billion) in January, up 24% from MOP18.25 billion a year earlier, yet the mass-market segment shows no sign of recovery amid weak Chinese consumer confidence.

Vitaly Umansky, global gaming senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, said the market shows persistent strength in the high-end and low-end segments but no recovery in the mass market over the past two to three years.

“The middle part of the market, kind of what people call generally the mass market, has been relatively soft compared to where we were pre-Covid,” Umansky recently told CNBC. “That has not really recovered.”

He attributed the weakness to low consumer confidence among China’s middle- and upper-middle-class consumers. “I think consumer confidence in China remains fairly low relative to historical levels,” Umansky said. “And I think that’s having a negative impact on the middle- and upper-middle-class travelers coming into Macau.”

“It’s really a high-end market, kind of supported by a very low-end segment, if you will — day-trippers coming in from Guangdong and Hong Kong, and then high rollers.”

During the interview, Umansky dismissed concerns over regional competition from places such as Singapore and the Philippines.

“I think it’s fairly limited,” the analyst said. “Macau is a very unique market, especially for the Greater China consumer. So I don’t think that’s having as much of a negative impact.”

Among operators, Seaport remains upbeat on Melco and Galaxy but negative on SJM Holdings.

“SJM, I think, has struggled with the new Macau, with the shift to Cotai, with the shift to premium mass,” Umansky told CNBC. “I don’t think they’ve been able to keep up with the competitive environment.”

He predicted no major changes in the mass market during the first half of 2026.

“We haven’t really seen much change over the past two or three years, and I don’t foresee a change in the first half of the year,” Umansky said.