Morgan Stanley forecasts GGR recovery for May Golden Week

Morgan Stanley has forecast gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Macau’s upcoming May Day Golden Week could reach between MOP800 to 850 million per day, translating to a 73% to 77% recovery compared to the same period in 2019, according to a research note.

Analysts Praveen K. Choudhary and Gareth Leung indicated the estimated figures are 5% to 10% lower than Chinese New Year revenue seen earlier this year. The May holiday period spans from May 1-5 due to the mainland’s holiday schedule.

The analysts noted the shorter duration of May’s Golden Week, when compared to Chinese New Year, could negatively impact April’s GGR, which is already seeing pressure from poor weather and stands at about MOP600 million per day.

A survey of 28 Macau hotels found average daily rates and occupancy will likely be weaker for most properties during May’s Golden Week, as opposed to figures reported for Chinese New Year and May 2019. MGM China appeared to perform better than its peers, while Sands China hotels seemed to face a bigger decline, partly due to renovations.

The analysts suggested investors remain cautious in the near term as downside catalysts include weak April revenue, potential May Golden Week data disappointment, and negative earnings revisions. Staff Reporter