Political scientist says ‘turncoat’ group will decide the AL elections

Political scientist Sérgio de Almeida Correia believes that the results of the September 12 election for the Legislative Assembly (AL) will be in the hands of just one of three groups of voters. He has identified this group as volatile and easily influenced by the idea of future benefits as a result of the election.
In an exclusive interview with the Times, Correia explained that the change of some faces running in the direct election is of little relevance and will not cause any significant changes to the way the AL works or in the decisions made by the plenary. He claims that the final outcome of whether there will be more pro-democracy or pro-establishment legislators in the next term is in the hands of a group of voters who are more influenced by potential benefits than by political ideology.
“Today we have three groups in Macau. [The first] is composed of the patriots: people close to the Chinese Communist Party, the working class and traditional sectors such as the Kaifong [neighborhood associations] and some more powerful local associations,” Correia said. “[In the second group are] the democratic patriots, who support universal suffrage and want to increase the power of residents’ voices. [This group comprises] a very significant part of the middle class, merchants, civil servants, mid-range company staff and young university students.”
Correia believes that the third group, which he considers to be the most influential in the elections, comprised of “a very volatile, opportunistic electorate, whose only interests are in [potential] business they can profit from. [These are the people that] today claim to be patriotic, but […] in the past they submissively supported the colonial power. They are capable of changing [sides] easily, and they are heavily dependent on local Mandarins, casinos, restaurants, and real estate deals [as well as] promises of future prosperity made to them.”
In Correia’s analysis, the three groups approach the elections differently.
“I believe that it will be the third group who decide between a more nationalist or more democratic composition of the Legislative Assembly,” he said. “These are the ones who will have the most to lose with changes [to the AL] and those I have the most uncertainty about [regarding] how they will vote on September 12.”
High fragmentation
to continue
When asked for a prediction of the upcoming composition of the AL after the September election, Correia advised expecting that the current high fragmentation of the chamber will continue, as a direct consequence of the electoral system.
“It’s a complicated system for converting votes into mandates which was designed to prevent the emergence of strong [political] blocs in the direct election. This is perhaps the reason that, unlike Hong Kong, the Macau government did not feel the need to amend the electoral law in the current legislature,” he said.
The high number of lists representing different interests, combined with election of just one of two candidates, in Correia’s view, leads to the fragmentation of interests, meaning that candidates elected by different lists seldom join forces on particular topics.

Loss of power from
gaming sector
In addition to the continuing political fragmentation, Correia believes that we may see a potential loss of power from some sectors, especially gaming.
“I believe that the biggest changes will be seen in the loss of electoral and political relevance of some sectors, namely gaming. There is a lot of discomfort amongst the sector after the previous elections, when Melinda Chan lost her seat. [This] is exacerbated by Angela Leong’s move to indirect elections in light of a potential humiliation at the polls by Cloee Chao, who represents the interests of gaming workers,” he remarked. Correia points to this term ending without any amendments to the gaming law as an “unmistakable sign of changing attitudes and paradigms” in relation to the lobbying power of the gaming sector.
local interests, families
losing momentum
Another important local traditional sector losing momentum is that of ‘local interests and families’, Correia said. He explained that these people are linked to the business and economic elite of Macau who, during the Portuguese administration and after the handover, managed to secure a substantial portion of the wealth generated in Macau.
For Correia, this power — that comes from their links to the elite, interlinked monopolies and oligopolies — is also losing potency as “the interests of these people are opposed to the general interest, generating social conflict, bad governance, wastage of public money and the bad image of institutions, which ends up affecting the Central Government as well.”
“In recent years, large portions of the population have been complaining about the high costs and general lack of housing. [They have also identified a lack of] transportation and healthcare, poor environments and bad quality public works, pollution, lack of treatment of sewage and wastewater, excessive construction [density] and lately even the condition of the roads. In other words, everything that concerns the daily lives of the population,” he explained.

CE-appointed lawmakers
to be replaced
The political expert notes that one of the bigger changes in the composition of the AL chamber will come from the group of seven lawmakers who are directly appointed by the Chief Executive (CE).
Correia says that the majority of those currently holding the post have been appointed by the previous CE, Chui Sai On, and at “various times they have only embarrassed the current CE and the government with their naive and misinformed interventions, falling on populist and demagogic movements.”
“The CE needs to have capable and competent people in the chamber who can make a difference and even be the voice of rationality at decisive moments,” Correia said, noting the example of the new regime for the hiring of non-resident workers, which, due to this lack of sensible behavior, resulted in legislators calling for amendments to the regime only two months after it had passed.

influence of Recent
political environment
Correia agreed that the political environment in recent months that led to the cancellation and deauthorization of several public activities and gatherings could influence the election.
“In addition to the economic situation and living conditions of residents, the political environment of the last year, the decisions (and indecision) of the Chief Executive, the pandemic, the increase in police control measures, the internal security requirements imposed by the Central government, the restrictions imposed on the right of assembly, parade and demonstration, the situation of Hong Kong and the international situation — they will all be decisive in the direct election vote,” he concluded.