Property market struggles despite lifting restrictions

The residential property market continues to face challenges despite the lifting of market restrictions in April, with transaction numbers and prices hitting multi-year lows in August.

The real estate sector does not appear to be benefitting from the removal of market curbs, according to stamp duty data from the Financial Services Bureau, published earlier this week.

Between July and August, residential property sales dropped 43%, from 356 transactions to just 200.

The Macau Peninsula, Taipa and Coloanesaw their transaction numbers decrease in August, with the peninsula’s sales totaling 150, a drop of almost 39% month-on-month.

The residential property price per square meter was similarly dismal, decreasing almost 15%, from MOP93,374 in July to MOP79,568 in August.

This figure marks the lowest level since June 2016, which saw a price of MOP78,416.

By area, the peninsula’s average property price in August fell 14.5% month-on-month, to MOP77,565.

To the Times, Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) Macau, attributed the current downturn more to broader economic conditions than seasonal trends.

JLL noted that interest rate hikes, a slow recovery post-COVID-19, and shifts in economic structure are significant factors contributing to the weak property market.

Looking ahead, JLL acknowledged that while recent cuts in US interest rates may signal potential relief for buyers, they might not significantly impact Macau’s market due to its disconnection from US rate movements.

The firm told the Times “Jobs and payroll data will be crucial in determining the size and pace of cuts in the future.”

The downturn has particularly affected local residents seeking their first homes.

Many who purchased properties in the last five years now face negative equity as current prices approach construction costs.

“The demand is still weak due to the low investment sentiment, as well as low marriage and newborn rates in the recent years,” said JLL.

Despite government efforts to stimulate demand through measures like removing stamp duties and easing mortgage ratios for luxury properties, JLL believes these actions have not effectively addressed the challenges.

The property firm suggested restoring loan-to-value ratios for first-time buyers could better support residents.

Investor sentiment remains cautious; however, some view the current situation as an opportunity for long-term investment as they anticipate a market bottoming out.

JLL has forecast that while rental values may stabilize or grow slightly this year, overall property prices will continue to face downward pressure in the near term. Nadia Shaw