September GGR hits yearly low

Casinos faced a significant downturn in September, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) dropping 12.7% from the previous month to MOP17.25 million (approx. US$2.16 million). This figure represents the lowest monthly total recorded for the year, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). The decline follows August’s revenue of MOP19.75 million ($2.47 million).

Despite this monthly setback, GGR showed a year-on-year increase of 15.5% compared to September 2023, when revenues were MOP14.94 million.

The reporting remained lower than the previous month because September, marked by children returning to school and the potential for typhoons and heavy rains, is traditionally a slow period for Macau.

Analysts attribute the recent decline primarily to disruptions caused by Typhoon Yagi, which impacted tourism and non-gaming services in early September. This storm coincided with a traditionally slower month for gaming revenue, as many visitors postponed their trips until the National Day holidays began on Oct. 1.

Although the accumulated gross revenue for 2024 stands at MOP169.36 million, reflecting a robust 31.3% increase over the previous year.

Overall, the first nine months of 2024 have been promising, with GGR reaching MOP 169.36 million—a notable increase compared to last year. Citigroup reports that high-stakes players, often referred to as “whales,” have been wagering more than in previous years, hinting at a potential market rebound.

JP Morgan analysts noted that while September’s results were disappointing, they were not as dire as initially feared, indicating that expectations had been tempered.

Looking forward, Vitaly Umansky from Seaport Research Partners expressed optimism for October, predicting a strong performance during Golden Week with expected GGR of MOP 21.5 million (US$2.68 million), representing a 10.3% increase year-on-year.

Meanwhile, China’s recent stimulus package, featuring interest rate cuts and relaxed home buying restrictions, may not yield immediate benefits for Macau’s revenue. However, Umansky suggests that it could bolster the mainland’s economy in the medium term, ultimately leading to a quicker recovery for Macau.

In a notable market turnaround, shares of gaming operators have surged an average of 23.7% over the past week.

This sharp increase comes on the heels of China’s announcement of its most comprehensive stimulus package since the beginning of the pandemic, according to a recent report from CBRE analysts. Nadia Shaw