UK general election British nationals in Macau prefer May, but only just

British PM Theresa May

On the two biggest issues of the U.K. general election, the country’s withdrawal from the European Union and the threat of Islamic terrorism, Brits living in Macau told the Times yesterday that they think incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May is slightly more suited for the job.

But only slightly, they insisted, recalling a similar political climate around the U.S. presidential election last year, when presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were both broadly unpopular with the public.

A very recent poll conducted in the U.K. by Opinium showed that some 42 percent of respondents think that May would make a better prime minister, with just 26 percent preferring Corbyn. As in the case of Trump and Clinton, the leading contenders in Britain have been beset by their low personal approval ratings in the run-
up to today’s vote.

Suzanne Watkinson, managing director of Ambiente Properties, told the Times last night that her “burning issue” in the campaign was how the Brexit negotiations will be handled and whether that will impact Brits living and retiring in the European Union. She thinks that Theresa May is marginally better suited for the task of leading the negotiations.

“Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t,” said Watkinson. “Better stick with May.”

“Brexit will still be central, but terrorism will also be a major deciding factor. These threads will be woven together in peoples’ minds as they head to the polls,” she added, but hinted that her vote of confidence would go to the incumbent.

Watkinson’s compatriot, Eileen Stow, the chief executive of Lord Stow’s Bakery, admitted that she thought May would negotiate a more advantageous withdrawal from the EU than Corbyn, but said that it pained her to admit that.

“I’m the daughter of a Labour man, brought up Labour, and I would probably vote Labour if I could. However, although I regret to say it, I think that Theresa May probably has a better chance of getting us a better deal out of Brexit,” said Stow. “In terms of security, I also have to take Theresa May’s view that ‘enough is enough’. That’s what everyone is saying and I stand with the [Labour] Mayor of London [Sadiq Khan], who is a Muslim himself.”

Meanwhile, University of Macau professor Glenn Timmermans is divided between the two leading candidates and suggested that, were he to vote, it would be for Britain’s Liberal Democrat party, which is likely to come third or fourth among nation-wide partiesin the election.

“I’ve never liked the Liberal Democrats but I would have voted Lib Dem in the election, if I could vote,” said Timmermans.

Up to three million Brits living abroad, including Watkinson, Stow and Timmermans, will not be permitted to cast their ballot in tomorrow’s election, because they have lived overseas for more than 15 years. The prohibition is in place despite a Tory pledge to give foreign nationals votes for life.

In a statement issued by the U.K. government in April, a cabinet spokesperson said that there was not sufficient time before the election to enfranchise all British expats and scrap the 15-year time limit.

“A month ago, it was just a formality, with Theresa May expected to get a thumping [significant] majority,” Timmermans told the Times yesterday, expressing his fustration. “It’s really amazing how she has just [expletive] this up… It’s extraordinary that we might go to the polls and [elect] a hung parliament.”

A hung parliament is an expression used to describe a situation under a parliamentary system where no one political party controls an absolute majority.

With regards to security, Timmermans echoes the sentiments of Watkinson in that the two options can be reduced down to a choice of the lesser evil.

“Although May might be slightly damaged by her reputation as Home Secretary – like cutting police numbers – Corbyn has also had affiliations with the IRA [Irish Republican Army] and Islamic terrorism. […] I think that this could make him a liability, and with the country nervous, we don’t want to trust an unknown entity,” he said.

On the other hand, “May has come across very badly in this campaign because she took [over] the leadership by default and has shown a general unwillingness to engage [in election debates],” the UM professor continued.

“I think that she has lost stature by calling the election. Like Brexit, which was a Tory party squabble, it was a mistake. Had she not called the election, she would be in a better, stronger position. I think she miscalculated.”

Now, in order to justify having called the election, the incumbent prime minister will need to attain a significant victory and expand on the 12-seat majority she currently controls, inherited from her predecessor, David Cameron in his, unexpected electoral success in 2015.

But even then, that may not be enough to save her job.

May’s campaign strategy has seen the Conservative leader, once commanding a position of unassailable strength, reduced to a mere participant in a contest that has become increasingly narrow. According to some of the latest polls, just 6 percentage points now stand between them.

“I regret to say it, but I think Theresa May will win,” remarked Stow when pressed for an opinion, despite the narrowing of the polls. “When given a choice between two [options], it will always be close. If you had a strong choice between three – a real choice – it wouldn’t be so close.”

“I suppose the smart money is still on May getting a respectable majority,” Timmermans complemented, but speculated that it would be her last election as Tory leader whatever the outcome. “Unless she gets a triumph in the election and with the Brexit negotiations, she will not be there in five years’ time.”

No follow-up after call for local trade negotiation help

At a celebration event for the 10th anniversary of the British Business Association of Macau (BBAM) in July last year, former U.K. Consul General Caroline Wilson said that Hong Kong and Macau would remain a “priority market” for the U.K. The celebration, which was held less than a month after the Brexit referendum, was also an occasion for the British community in Macau to come to terms with the decision, which they had overwhelmingly opposed in interviews with the Times. Speaking alongside the British Trade Commissioner for Hong Kong and Macau, Frances Moffett-Kouadio, Wilson said that the government would be reaching out to British expatriates in Macau to seek on-the-ground knowledge ahead of potential trade negotiations. Eileen Stow, a founder member of BBAM, told the Times yesterday that, to the best of her knowledge, there has been no outreach as of yet.