Ultra-long-haul flights | A Brazil-HK route could be good news for ‘Macau platform’

A plane prepares to land in Hong Kong

New airplanes capable of flying ultra-long distances could come into operation at key Asian airports within five years, as major plane manufacturers say they are confident their jetliners can link even the most distant continents.

Spanning distances of around 18,000 kilometers – or about half the circumference of the planet – direct flights between these two landmasses represent the next frontier in commercial aviation, and will seek to satisfy the travel demand of a rapidly growing middle class in the world’s most populous continent.

The establishment of ultra-long-haul flights – possibly in nearby airport hubs, such as Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou – has implications for trans-Pacific connectivity as well as the Macau government’s strategic aim of becoming a platform for trade between China and Portuguese-speaking countries.

While the Macau International Airport (MIA) is likely to remain regional in its capacity, serving destinations in East Asia, Southeast Asia and possibly South Asia, neighboring Hong Kong is a logical testing ground for ultra-
long-haul connections.

In this sense, Macau is expected to continue using Hong Kong air infrastructure as a medium for long-haul imports and tourism; a relationship that will be strengthened by the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge later this year.

The world’s most reputable commercial jet manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, say that their latest planes are able to handle distances of 18,000 kilometers, carrying passengers for up to 20 hours straight. This would allow Hong Kong to offer direct connections with some of Latin America’s largest cities, such as Rio de Janeiro and Mexico City.

Direct air connections are regarded as important levers in driving economic growth, and imports and exports activity.

According to PWC, the aviation industry was responsible for generating some USD2.4 trillion (amounting to 3.4 percent of global GDP) in 2012, with around USD600 billion comprising indirect benefits through increased economic activity of international suppliers. Better transport links also enable a freer flow of human capital between borders.

A direct link from Brazil to Hong Kong would, for all intents and purposes, mean a direct link between Brazil and Macau and a major step in establishing the city as a platform for trade between China and Portuguese-speaking countries.

In the first quarter of this year, trade between China and Portuguese-speaking countries was tracked 40 percent higher than in the same period in 2016, totaling more than USD34 billion. However, the proportion of this trade channeled through the MSAR amounted to less than 1 percent.

The Macau Airport Company (CAM) told the Times it is intent on exploring its own “potential airlines to operate direct long-
haul routes to Macau,” but would not comment on specific routes to Latin America or Portuguese-
speaking countries.

“Our company’s marketing department has been trying all [manner of] ways to introduce new airlines to MIA,” noted a representative of CAM, but “an airline of a foreign country may have many considerations before entering into a new market.”

So-called “long-haul” routes in Macau will not be on the same scale or distance as those currently operating out of Asia’s major airport hubs, nor the ultra-long-haul flights expected in the near future.

Currently, the Macau International Airport’s furthest regular destination is Jakarta, launched last month by Indonesia AirAsia, at around 3,200 kilometers – or five hours – away.

Growing demand for air travel, particularly in Asia, is making new, longer routes profitable and possible, through the offering of multiple travel options priced differently. With direct flights suited for business travelers, and stopover alternatives catering to price-sensitive tourists, the more people who fly, the more routes that are needed to support global connectivity.

According to aviation experts, ultra-long-haul flights can be financially viable provided that oil prices do not exceed the USD70 per barrel mark.

Fuel prices, which usually account for around one-third of an airline’s expenditure, are crucial to determining the profitability of routes and how fast commercial planes should fly.

Previous ultra-long-haul flights have come and gone, with airlines deeming them unprofitable when oil hits unsustainable highs, as it did in mid-2008 when oil broke through the USD130 ceiling. Oil is currently trading at around USD50 per barrel and aviation experts say that new ultra-long-haul flights can be viable at this price.