UM research group says economic uncertainty is on the horizon

Macau’s GDP is expected to grow by 8.3 percent in 2018, ranging from a pessimistic rate 5.1 percent to an optimistic rate 11.6 percent, according to the University of Macau (UM) Department of Economics and Center for Macau Studies.

Yesterday, the UM department released its Macroeconomic Forecast for Macau 2018-2019.

According to the forecast, Macau’s GDP is expected to grow by 7.1 percent in 2019.

The Center for Macau Studies pointed out that economic uncertainty is on the horizon.

As explained by Chan Chi Shing, a researcher at the Center for Macau Studies, the economic uncertainty is due to the expectation of the US Federal Reserve to raise its interest rates continually.

In addition, Chan explained that Trump’s administration is creating trade frictions between the U.S. and other countries, Eurozone countries continue to face debt crises, mainland China’s economy would slow down and the Central Government would try to use accommodative monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize economic growth.

Chan believes all the aforementioned situations may affect Macau’s economic growth in 2019.

Macau’s exports of services are expected to increase by 13.6 percent this year, and are expected to grow at a slower rate of 8.7 percent next year.

Exports of goods are expected to increase by 18.1 percent and 5.7 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

Concomitant with the recovery in local consumption, imports of goods are expected to increase by 7.5 percent in both 2018 and 2019.

Amid the rise in exports of services, the import of services will expand.

The growth rates of imported services are expected to increase by 17.4 percent and 9.5 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

For domestic demand, private consumption spending continued to grow steadily.

It is expected to grow 5 percent in both 2018 and 2019.

Total investment is expected to decline by 5.7 percent in 2018 and grow by 4.4 percent in 2019.

Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to be higher. The inflation rate is expected to be 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.9 percent in 2019.

For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase by 3.4 percent and 4.1 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

The labour market continues to be tight. The unemployment rate is forecast to be 2 percent and 1.9 percent in 2018 and in 2019 respectively.

Excluding non-resident wor-
kers, the unemployment rate of residents is expected to be 2.6 percent and 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019.

Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to be MOP16,077 and MOP16,638 in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

EIU predicts lower growth for Macau

THE AVERAGE growth rate of Macau’s economy is expected to be 4.9 percent in 2018/2019, with growth this year of 5.8 percent,slowing the following year to 3.9 percent, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said. The EIU noted, in its latest report on Macau published last week, that this growth is based on the gaming sector, and that gross fixed capital formation or investment should originate from public expenditure related to the construction of social housing and transport infrastructure. The document said that the government’s efforts to diversify Macau’s economic structure are expected to remain unsuccessful but added that gaming operators should continue to focus heavily on tourism not directly related to gambling, which will increase the available entertainment opportunities. The EIU also said that although China’s economic growth rate is expected to slow slightly over the period under review, the average income of the population will continue to rise, allowing Chinese tourists in Macau to spend more on both casinos and entertainment.

University launches Macao Economic Database Project

The Center for Macau Studies of the University of Macau (UM) yesterday announced the launch of the Macao Economic Database Project, which is a joint project with the UM Library.

The project aims to create a comprehensive database of Macau’s major economic indicators.

The database is expected to help researchers, students and the general public to better understand Macau’s economic and social development so that effective actions can be taken to increase the quality of life of residents.

The project will have two major phases. During the first phase, official statistical data, including data from the databases of the Statistics and Census Service and the Monetary Authority of Macao, will be converted into a format that is more searchable. 

During the second phase, data from other official documents, including academic articles, books, newspapers and magazines, will be systematically collected to be included in the Macau economic database.

The Macao Economic Database Project will be accessible in the UM Library’s database after the completion of the first phase. JZ