Academic estimates up to 21.7 million tourist arrivals in 2022

An academic has estimated that the city will see this year’s tourist arrivals ranging from 9.9 million to 21.7 million.

The University of Macau (UM) held a press conference yesterday to report its Macau Macroeconomic Forecast 2022.

The report’s estimation of the city’s economic performance this year, besides the projected figures of tourist arrivals, is that the government’s total income will range between 51.2 and 65.9 billion patacas. The fluctuation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to be between 3.6% and 37.9%.

The university expects that the city’s economic performance will be similar to last year, but the key factor is the number of tourists.

On the sidelines of the event, Patrick Ho Wai Hong, assistant professor of Economics at the UM, highlighted several factors as critical for the city’s economic performance.

These factors are the status of the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic performance of mainland China, as well as the international political environment. Ho stressed that Macau is very exposed to external factors, given that it is a small open economy.

When discussing the estimate, Ho said that in the best case, there will be a slight improvement from 2021. However, he stressed that nobody should expect the economy to return to pre-Covid levels this year, considering that tourist arrivals are unlikely to recover so soon.

The worst case, he said, will be if the city sees only one quarter of its pre-Covid tourist arrivals: even worse than the 2021 figure.

Nevertheless, he sees an improved outlook if no new variants of the virus cause any major disruption. He also believed that the city’s economy will perform similarly to last year.

Commenting on the proposed Gambling Law review, Ho said that the passage of the bill will help clarify the future of the industry, giving confidence to new concessionaires to make investments in other sectors and industries. This, he said, would not only benefit the casino industry, but also the city in general.

Concerning his economic recommendations for the government, Ho hopes that further financial assistance will be offered to the city’s small and medium enterprises. Additional livelihood subsidies would also be beneficial, he added.

Praising the government for its efforts in maintaining the employment rate by investing in public works, Ho admitted that Macau’s economy will not return to the level of a decade ago within the next two years, adding that a recovery in tourist arrivals to between 60% and 70% of the pre-Covid era would be as good as could be expected.

According to Ho, tourist arrivals are a key variable in the forecast of this year’s economic performance. The best-case estimate, he said, was made based on a situation in which quarantine-free immigration between Macau and Hong Kong is permitted, as well as a normalization of the border between Macau and mainland China. Should this situation be realized, he said, the economy of the city will improve.