Analysts expect mass GGR to recover to 60-70% of 2019 level
JP Morgan is satisfied with the pace and extent of the recovery of Macau’s gaming industry, expecting the Chinese New Year (CNY) mass GGR to recover to 60-70% of 2019’s level.
Having visited Macau for a day trip with a group of investors last Friday (Jan. 27), JP Morgan said they were “impressed by the traffic level and social activities in the city upon departure.”
According to a report yesterday, it felt like they were back to 3-4 years ago, “with long queues for many retail/ F&B outlets and a lively gaming floor with high minimum bets.”
All gaming companies “were pleasantly surprised by the level of segment demand during CNY,” the report revealed.
The JP Morgan view sounded similar to if not more upbeat than Sands’ management during its earnings call last week.
Credit Suisse also published a research report, predicting the average daily gaming revenue during the non-holiday period in Macau will be between MOP250-300 million, and the peak daily gaming revenue from the 3rd to the 6th day of the Chinese New Year will reach about MOP500-600 million. Mass performance is expected to be back to around 60% of the 2019 levels.
The broker believes the gaming gross revenue in January should reach between MOP9-11 billion, similar to that in May 2021.
Overall, CNY performance “should surprise the market, and the market may have the opportunity to raise the figures for the first quarter,” the broker said.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings said that Macau is probably among the most benefited economies in the Asia-Pacific region after China dropped travel restrictions and reopened its borders.
In a report this week, the analysts note that Macau, Thailand and Malaysia are likely to most benefit from the trends in outbound Chinese tourism.
The ratings house noted it expects “a revival of Chinese outbound tourism to boost growth prospects in economies with substantial tourism sectors.”
The results of pent-up demand were already seen in Macau during the Chinese New Year holiday, with some 451,000 visitors in total, an increase of almost 300% year-on-year. PC
