Analysts: GGR off to solid start in March despite cost pressures

Citigroup analysts described Macau’s gaming industry as off to a “solid start” in early March, with the bank estimating gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching “circa MOP5.65 billion” for the first eight days, even as UBS trimmed its 2026 earnings outlook due to rising operating costs.

Citigroup highlighted in a research note that this figure implies a daily run rate of about MOP706 million. That pace sits 4% below February 2026’s MOP737 million daily average but marks an 11% increase from March 2025’s MOP634 million per day.

Citi’s analysts, George Choi and Timothy Chau, attributed the year-on-year gain in GGR partly to high-profile concerts hosted by casino operators.

“We believe concerts by Korean boy band Treasure at the Venetian Arena, Chinese singer-songwriter Wang Sulong, and Korean girl group Aespa at Galaxy Arena might have contributed to Macau’s solid start in March 2026,” stated Citi.

“Based on industry sources, Macau GGR for the first eight days of March is likely to have reached circa MOP5.65 billion (USD701.9 million),” Choi and Chau wrote.

“This implies a daily run rate of about MOP706 million, circa 4% lower than the GGR run rate in February 2026 – at MOP737 million a day –, but around 11% higher than that in March 2025, at MOP634 million a day.”

Despite the month-on-month dip, Citigroup noted softer segments.

VIP volumes fell between 2% and 4% from February, while mass gross gaming revenue dropped 3% to 5%, according to industry sources. The VIP hold rate, however, appeared slightly above normal levels.

Overall, the bank conservatively held its full-month March forecast at MOP22.5 billion, a 14% year-on-year rise that assumes an average of MOP733 million daily for the rest of March.

In February, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported GGR of MOP20.6 billion, up 4.5% from the prior year. That brought combined January-February revenue to MOP43.3 billion, a 13.9% year-on-year increase.

On Monday, UBS analysts echoed the positive early-year momentum while issuing a cautious full-year view.

Analysts Angus Chan, Ryan Lau, Perry Yeung, Samuel Yip, and Robin Farley lowered 2026 EBITDA estimates for Macau operators by about 2% amid higher operating expenses observed in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Pointing to January-February growth of about 14% year-on-year, which beat market expectations, the UBS analysts stated in their Monday research report, “Gaming demand has remained solid in early 2026.”

UBS projects sector-wide luck-adjusted EBITDA to rise approximately 6% year-on-year in 2026, following largely flat results in 2025.

Moderate gross gaming revenue expansion of around 5% for all of 2026 is expected.

Margins should hold steady as operators prioritize cost control, reinvestment optimization, and efficiency in a stabilized competitive environment, according to UBS.

Premium gaming segments are expected to drive revenue, supported by upgraded suites, further marketing efforts, and increased hotel capacity coming online among several integrated resorts.