Asian Affairs | A look at North’s evolving brinkmanship

North Korea observers have long marveled at the ability of a small, impoverished, autocratic nation to go toe-to-toe with the world’s superpowers.

Part of the secret to North Korean success has always been the ruling Kim family’s mastery of the art of brinkmanship.

What looks to outsiders like bluster, bombast and recklessness is actually a proven technique that over the years has won North Korea grudging respect from Washington and its allies, and at times filled its coffers with aid offered by rivals relieved to see animosity on the Korean Peninsula ease.

In recent weeks, however, the roles may have reversed, with a new administration in Washington bulldozing its way to the brink before finally backing away.

Korean war jitters made global headlines after U.S. President Donald Trump issued repeated, ambiguous warnings about his willingness to take unilateral action and sent U.S. military vessels to Korean waters. This week, however, Trump announced a much softer policy that combines diplomacy and economic sanctions and is strikingly similar to what frustrated past presidents embraced.

North Korea used to employ a comparable method: Forcing the world to pay attention by staging nuclear and missile tests, issuing outrageous threats and occasionally lashing out with violence — and then offering up negotiations.

For decades, the tiny, Third World dictatorship sandwiched between rich behemoths played the game remarkably well. But some now see North Korea entering a frightening new phase, barreling across what were once considered red lines in a dash to build nuclear-armed missiles that can reach the U.S. mainland.

A big part of North Korea’s past brinkmanship has always involved its weapons program. That may be changing.

The country is thought to have a small nuclear arsenal, and some analysts believe it can mount atomic warheads on short- and medium-range missiles that can target South Korea, Japan and spots in the Pacific.

Each new nuclear detonation and long-range rocket launch worries Washington because they put North Korea that much closer to its ultimate goal of a nuclear-armed long-range missile.

The tests have also served a political purpose in years past.

North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, under current leader Kim Jong Un’s father, the late Kim Jong Il, but the North took years between its subsequent tests and was willing to talk about giving up its nuclear program for security guarantees from the United States.

Some analysts believe that Kim Jong Un, who took over in late 2011, abandoned this pattern of brinkmanship in 2016 when North Korea sped ahead with nuclear weapons development, conducting two nuclear tests and a long-range rocket launch that year.

This may signal that Kim is now pursuing a nuclear arsenal, which North Korea calls its “treasured sword,” as a goal in itself, not as leverage for negotiation. Foster Klug, AP