Association expects economic sentiment to remain stable in Q1

[Photo; Renato Marques]

The Macau Economic Association has released its latest report on Macau’s Economic Sentiment covering the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

According to the report, the Association expects Economic Sentiment to remain stable at a level similar to the end of 2025, with the index fluctuating between 6.1–6.3.

Addressing the end of last year, the group said that the final two months of 2025 saw overall stable performance.

“Gaming revenue continued its year-on-year growth trend, though December showed a slight decline compared to November. Average daily gross gaming revenue for the last two months was MOP703 million and MOP674 million, respectively, indicating growth momentum may be moderating,” the association said.

“Annual visitor arrivals in 2025 reached 40.06 million, surpassing the 2019 pre-pandemic peak and setting a new record, up 14.7% from 2024. Tourism and related indicators remained robust, with visitor arrivals, hotel guest numbers, and average occupancy rates all sustaining levels ranging from ‘hot’ to ‘overheated.’ The labor market remained strong, with the overall unemployment rate holding steady at a low 1.7%, indicating sustained labor demand,” it added.

However, the group also noted that amid coexisting uncertainties in the external environment, shifts in consumption patterns, and imbalances in economic development, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) faced operational pressures, while household income growth remained sluggish.

As a result, “both businesses and households are expected to adopt a more conservative approach to consumption and investment decisions.”

The report also addressed the consumer confidence index in the mainland, which has lingered in the ‘depressed’ range for an extended period, and is therefore likely to further affect the consumption patterns of this group, which accounts for the large majority of visitors to Macau.

In the capital market, the stock prices of the six major integrated resort operators continued to hover in the ‘poor’ range, reflecting investors’ cautious stance toward the medium-term economic outlook.

The local household loan-to-deposit ratio remained low, while the residential property price index remained sluggish.

“Based on the analysis and projection of multiple economic indicators, the economic sentiment indices for November and December [2025] were 6.3 points and 6.2 points, respectively,” the group stated.

Pace expected to slow for gaming sector after Q1

According to the report, in Q1 the gaming and tourism sector is expected to maintain a solid foundation and perform well, although the Association notes that the overall pace may slow.

“Looking ahead to 2026, the supporting conditions and fundamental trend of ‘stable with positive momentum’ remain unchanged. Macau’s economy will remain driven primarily by the integrated tourism and leisure sector,” which is expected to remain resilient and continue to drive overall growth.

The sector’s resilience is bolstered by increased marketing activities, enhanced leisure tourism offerings, and a growing diversity of visitors to the region.

As expected, the peak in Economic Sentiment will occur in February, with the arrival of the Spring Festival (Chinese New Year). However, the group notes that amid socioeconomic transformations and persistent development imbalances, the community business environment faces profound and complex changes.

Overall, the economy will present mixed strengths and weaknesses, with small and micro enterprises in residential areas still grappling with significant operational pressures, while major enterprises continue to thrive.

“Based on comprehensive analysis and projections, Macau’s economic sentiment index is expected to remain within the range of 6.1-6.3 points in the first quarter of this year, with overall economic performance likely to maintain a ‘steady and stable’ trajectory,” the association remarked.