Casino revenue forecast revised amid slower start to 2025

Investment banking firm Jefferies has revised its forecast for the region’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, lowering its prediction by 2% to 240 billion patacas. This adjustment follows weaker-than-expected revenue reported by the city’s casino operators in the first two months of the year.

In a statement, analysts explained that the GGR figures for January and February were flat, with the Chinese New Year holiday showing a longer-than-expected impact on revenues.

January’s GGR totaled 18.25 billion patacas, reflecting minimal growth of just 0.29% compared to December 2024. February’s revenue showed a stronger increase, rising 6.8% to 19.74 billion patacas.

Despite these modest gains, the overall performance fell short of expectations, prompting the revision of the GGR forecast.

The new estimate remains 2% above the market’s projected GGR for 2025, reflecting a 5.8% growth compared to the previous year’s GGR of 226.8 billion patacas.

Although the forecast has been lowered, Jefferies remains optimistic about the city’s potential for growth in the coming months.

Analysts pointed to the introduction of multiple-entry permits for Zhuhai residents and the Hengqin-Macao multiple-entry permits for tour groups as potential drivers for increased visitation and gaming revenue.

Meanwhile, the GGR for the first week of March is expected to remain stable, according to the JP Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research Team.

The average daily GGR for the first nine days of the month stood at 638 million patacas, accumulating 5.75 billion patacas in total.

This mirrors the daily GGR of 644 million patacas seen in February, indicating a consistent trend. Analysts from JP Morgan, including DS Kim, Selina Li, and Mufan Shi, forecast March’s GGR to remain largely unchanged from the previous year, estimating it will total around 19 billion patacas. Staff Reporter