Casino revenue slightly increases to MOP19.7b in March

Gross gaming revenue (GGR) in March totaled MOP19.66 billion, representing a marginal year-on-year increase of 0.8% from the MOP19.50 billion recorded in March 2024.

Official data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) shows that March revenue represents an average daily GGR of MOP634.2 million, in line with the revised forecasts from brokerage companies.

These companies recently revised down their annual results prediction after a slower-than-expected start to 2025.

The first quarter (Q1) results also show an increase of 0.6% compared to 2024, with an accumulated MOP57.66 billion at the end of March.

Still, the Q1 results were short of the government forecast for the year, MOP20 billion per month or MOP240 billion for the whole year.

Last week, analysts from Citigroup noted that they expect March GGR to be “largely flat” compared to 2024, forecasting that the GGR for the entire month of March would reach approximately MOP19.5 billion, roughly the same figure recorded in 2024 and about 75% of the pre-pandemic level.

At the same time, sources within the industry have noted that in March, both the VIP and mass market sectors experienced drops, with the VIP dropping more by an average of 9%, while the mass market decreased slightly less by an average of 8%.

In their revised prediction, analysts from JP Morgan forecasted that Macau’s full-year GGR would grow by only 1% to 4% in 2025, which is lower than the industry consensus of 5% growth.

Citigroup now predicts a 1% year-on-year decline in first-half GGR, meaning a general growth of 6%, a figure whose latest results are still far from confirming.

To be accurate, Q2 of this year, which begins now, would have to show significant growth y-o-y with Q2 accounting for some MOP63.25 billion in GGR, a daily average of around MOP695 million.

The Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai, is expected to address the previous government forecast for the GGR in 2025 when he presents his first policy address later this month.