Casino revenues in March show seasonal decline: HSBC

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 16 days of March totaled MOP10.1 billion, according to a report by HSBC Global Research.

This equates to a daily average of MOP631 million, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase but a 10% decline compared to February’s daily average of MOP705 million.

The research noted that the drop in revenue aligns with seasonal patterns, influenced in part by a lower VIP win rate, which ranged from 2.8% to 3.1%, down from 3% to 3.3% the previous week, according to AAStocks Financial News.

This fluctuation contributed to the month’s softer performance.

HSBC estimates that if the daily GGR remains between MOP580 million and MOP640 million for the rest of March, the total monthly GGR could fall between MOP18.8 billion and MOP19.7 billion.

This would translate to a year-over-year growth rate of -3.5% to +1% for March, and -1% to +0.6% for the first quarter of 2025.

Despite the short-term fluctuations, HSBC remains optimistic about the gaming sector, particularly for MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment.

Both stocks have been assigned a “Buy” rating, with target prices of HKD14 and HKD41.5, respectively.

The report highlighted MGM China’s strong return on invested capital and efficient operations as key strengths.

Meanwhile, Galaxy is expected to benefit from its Phase 3 expansion and the anticipated mid-year opening of the Capella Hotel, which could provide support for its stock price.