Casino revenues to grow in 2025, but fall short of pre-pandemic levels, analysts say

Macau’s gaming revenues are projected to grow by up to 7% in 2025, boosted by a recovery in the real estate sector and improved consumer confidence in China, analysts told Lusa.

However, they warned that the figures would still fall significantly short of the record highs seen before the pandemic.

Vitaly Umansky, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, pointed to the potential for a positive impact from China’s economic growth. “The biggest positive factor for Macau would be if the Chinese economy grows and consumer confidence improves,” he said.

In 2024, more than 70% of Macau’s visitors came from mainland China, where the economy grew by 5% in 2023, meeting the Chinese government’s growth target. However, there are signs of economic challenges ahead, particularly in consumer confidence. Nicholas Chen, an analyst at CreditSights, noted that China’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.7% in 2024, partly due to weak private consumption.

The Chinese consumer confidence index hit a 34-year low in September, with analysts like Jeffrey Kiang from CLSA suggesting that, in such an environment, consumers may reduce spending and travel, including to Macau.

To counteract these trends, the Chinese government has rolled out stimulus measures such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement reductions, and early allocations from its 2025 budget for infrastructure projects. Additionally, Beijing has increased civil servants’ salaries and introduced a consumer goods exchange system to spur domestic demand.

While some analysts believe these measures will boost confidence, particularly among China’s middle class, others remain cautious. “I think the recovery is likely, but it’s just a matter of time,” said Umansky.

CreditSights expects consumer confidence to pick up again in the second half of 2025, alongside the stabilization of real estate prices, which have been falling for 19 consecutive months.

The state of China’s real estate sector is crucial, as housing accounts for about 30% of the economy, and a slowdown could have significant social implications. Chen believes that some of the stimulus efforts to boost domestic consumption will spill over into Macau’s gaming sector. He also expects China to expand the number of cities whose residents can apply for individual visas to visit Macau and Hong Kong, which was used by 35.2% of Macau visitors in 2024.

However, not all analysts agree. Umansky pointed out that residents from Zhuhai were granted the ability to visit Macau once a week starting in January, staying for up to seven days. He sees this as a positive development for Macau’s tourism and gaming sectors, but overall, he is cautious about predictions of rapid recovery.

Despite these potential growth factors, analysts agree that Macau’s gaming revenues will remain far from the peak of MOP303 billion recorded in 2018. “One thing is clear: the government aims for moderate revenue growth in the future,” said Kiang, noting that authorities have forecasted MOP 240 billion in gaming revenues for 2025, a 5.8% increase.

Umansky explained that Macau’s government is typically conservative in its forecasts, often based on prior consultations with the Liaison Office of the Chinese central government in the city. He also dismissed concerns that Beijing might reintroduce a crackdown on the gaming sector, similar to the one that followed the 2021 arrest of Alvin Chau, former CEO of the Suncity junket.

“A large part of the undesirable behavior in Macau disappeared with the junkets,” Umansky said. “As long as issues like that don’t resurface, I don’t expect any major crackdowns in the short term.”