Casinos see strong rebound in mass market gaming

The gambling sector is showing a robust recovery, with Citigroup reporting that total gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 26 days of October may have reached approximately MOP20.4 billion.

Average daily revenue for the week of October 20–26 was about MOP793 million, with VIP lounge betting up 45-50% and mass market revenue rising 25-28%.

In light of the stronger-than-expected performance, Citigroup has raised its October gambling revenue forecast from MOP22.5 billion to MOP23.5 billion.

This revised estimate represents roughly 89% of October 2019 levels and a year-on-year increase of 13%.

Assuming the remaining daily revenue for the month averages approximately MOP620 million, the market is set to maintain solid growth, the institution said.

For Ben Lee of iGamix Management and Consulting Ltd, recent gaming forecasts closely align with the firm’s own projections.

“Macau always surprises in its ability to constantly reinvent itself,” he noted.

According to Lee, high-end gaming is no longer dominated by large corporate junket operators. Instead, independent “junket agents” – previously intermediaries directing players to operators –are now working on their own, driving VIP activity.

“The VIP segment now appears to be driven not by the large corporate junket operators that used to exist, but by what we call ‘junket agents.’ These are the independent field agents that used to push players to the junket operators but are now working for themselves,” he told the Times.

The Times also questioned whether the market is hitting a plateau or merely pacing toward full recovery.

Lee said the concept of a revenue ceiling is “political, not market-driven,” noting that authorities are more concerned with half-year and annual trends. After strong double-digit growth in late 2024, the first half of 2025 saw only low single-digit gains, suggesting any correction may emerge next year.

Meanwhile, casino operators are experiencing a notable recovery in visitor demand, driven predominantly by mass and premium mass segments, according to Brian Arcese of Foord Asset Management.

“Over 90% of the market is Hong Kong and mainland Chinese visitors,” he said in an interview with CNBC earlier this week, noting that GGR is growing at low double-digit to mid-teens rates.

Since the renewal of gaming concessions two years ago, significant capital has been invested in non-gaming facilities by operators including Sands, Wynn, and Galaxy, all of which feature in Foord’s portfolios.

Arcese emphasized that supply remains constrained, with limited hotel rooms and capacity for visitors.

“Mass demand, which is now 70% of the business, has returned to more or less pre-Covid levels,” he said.

The market has shifted sharply from a pre-pandemic model dominated by VIP junkets, which carried thin margins, to a mass-focused structure with premium customers. “Margins on mass players are 10 times as high – around 30% – so even if GGR is smaller than it was previously, earnings are the same or higher,” Arcese explained.

Despite the growth in visitation and spending, stock valuations have yet to fully reflect the recovery, presenting what Foord describes as attractive investment opportunities in Macau’s gaming sector at low-teens multiples.

“But the core customer in Macau is spending USD500 to USD1,000 a day in that premium mass segment. […] And there’s a significant number of them that continue to come,” he added.