Citi: Gov’t underestimates gaming revenue, poised to surge

The Macau government’s recent estimate that industry gross gaming revenue (GGR) will reach MOP240 billion in 2025 could be significantly underestimated according to Citigroup.

Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau suggest that Macau’s industry GGR could reach MOP243 billion (USD30.4 billion)

in 2025, up 7% year-on-year, with EBITDA growing by 13% to USD9 billion. This forecast is higher than the Macau government’s recent estimate of MOP240 billion (around USD30 billion) for 2025.

Citi’s more optimistic projections are driven by expected increases in visitation, the rollout of smart gaming tables and the rising popularity of new side bets. The analysts note that the government has underestimated GGR in nine of the past 10 years by 10-60%, suggesting there could be “significant upside risk” to their own forecast.

Growth in 2025 is expected to come from a combination of factors, including organic visitation increases and new cities added to the Individual Visit Scheme.

Widespread adoption of smart gaming tables is set to play a crucial role, as these technologies enable more targeted player marketing and lead to a reduction in comp wastage. Citi calculates that a player’s theoretical GGR could increase by 5.9% on efficiency alone.

Furthermore, the growing popularity of side bets, which are also easier to offer with smart table technology, can significantly enhance a player’s value. Citi estimates that “a player with a tendency to place 10% of their wager on Lucky 6 is worth 125.5% more than a player who bets strictly on main bets.”  VC