Citi sees modest February GGR growth on strong CNY play

Citigroup forecasts February gross gaming revenue at MOP20 billion, up 1% year-on-year, fueled by a 17% surge in Chinese New Year wagers, according to its latest table betting survey.

Total observed wagers during the holiday period hit HKD24.4 million (USD3.1 million), with analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau highlighting that “premium mass demand remains robust” in the city.

Average wager per player reached a record HKD29,625, climbing 13% from HKD26,224 last year, while player counts rose 3% to 824.

In their recent note, the analysts stated, “The data points we collected make us comfortable with our February GGR forecast of MOP20.0 billion (US$2.48 billion).”

They now project 12% year-on-year growth for January and February combined.

During their checks, the bank spotted seven whales betting HKD500,000 or more, up from four in 2025, alongside 53 placing HKD100,000-plus wagers, compared with 49 previously.

Player standouts included two HKD800,000 whales at Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd.’s Horizon room in Galaxy Macau; a HKD740,000 player at Sands China’s The Londoner Macao; and three HKD700,000 bettors across Melco Resorts’ City of Dreams, MGM China’s Signature Club, and the MGM Cotai high-limit area.

Average baccarat minimum bets rose 5% to HKD2,347, hinting at a gradual mass-market recovery, Citi noted.

Melco Resorts claimed 25% of total observed wagers, doubling from 13% last year.

“We saw a total of 12 whales at City of Dreams, the most among all properties we visited during the survey day,” Citi reported.

Galaxy Entertainment ranked second at 23%, down 1 percentage point from 2025, while SJM Holdings Ltd. introduced low-limit baccarat tables at Grand Lisboa Palace in Cotai — including three with a HKD300 minimum, the only such offering in Cotai.

Citi lacked access to Wynn Macau Ltd.’s expanded Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace, opened February 14, but noted its pull. One whale there was a HKD200,000 Korean bettor, signaling early success in drawing visitors beyond mainland China.

Chinese New Year fell on February 17 this year, with a nine-day mainland holiday from February 15 to 23. Last year, it fell on January 29, with an eight-day break from January 28 to February 4.

JP Morgan trims growth forecast

JP Morgan has slightly lowered its gaming revenue growth forecast following softer-than-expected performance during the Chinese New Year period.

The institution revised its February GGR growth forecast to between 0% and 2%, down from the previous estimate of 2% to 5%.

After adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects, the analysts projected 2M26 GGR growth of about 12% to 13%, largely aligning with broader industry expectations.

Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian reported that the first 22 days of the month generated about MOP14.3 billion in gaming revenue, averaging MOP650 million per day.

Last week’s run rate reached MOP785 million per day, below the brokerage’s expectation of MOP850 million. The analysts noted that the holiday began slowly, with the first four to five days averaging around MOP450 million daily, pointing to a possible year-on-year decline of at least 10%.

Gaming activity improved after the first week of the holiday period. From day six onward, GGR exceeded MOP1.2 billion per day, reflecting year-on-year growth of roughly 10% to 15%, driven by stronger player spending.

The brokerage said post-holiday demand, particularly from high-end players, typically supports revenue momentum.