Jefferies and CLSA lift GGR projections on market confidence and developments

Jefferies Hong Kong Ltd has once again revised its full-year 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast upward to MOP248 billion.

This projection now sits at the high end of market expectations and exceeds the government’s estimate of MOP228 billion.

In a note released last week, Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei attributed their upward revision of their GGR forecast primarily to “rich entertainment events” and the launch of new properties such as Galaxy Macau’s Capella.

The analysts also highlighted the significant impact of The Londoner Macao’s recent renovations, which expanded the property to feature 2,405 rooms and suites under the Londoner Grand brand.

Beyond these property developments, Jefferies points to enhanced player incentives and the emergence of a “new wealth” segment among gamblers as key factors supporting gaming revenue growth through the end of 2025.

The investment bank notes that favorable trends in real estate, stock markets, and cryptocurrencies have boosted consumer confidence and spending power within this group.

The revised forecast projects Macau’s full-year 2025 GGR to grow by 9.5%, with the September quarter expected to see a 13.8% year-on-year increase and a 15.3% rise in the fourth quarter. The investment bank also predicts continued growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

“We expect these drivers to continue to fuel GGR growth for the rest of the year,” Ling and Pei said.

The analysts also highlighted events like the NBA China Games 2025 at The Venetian Arena and the Macau Grand Prix as key contributors to boosting revenue from September to December.

This outlook follows the release of August’s GGR figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). August’s total came in at MOP22.2 billion (USD2.76 billion), a slight increase of 0.14% from July’s MOP22.13 billion (USD2.75 billion).

Regarding market share, Jefferies indicates that Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and Sands China Ltd will increase their stakes in 2025 and 2026, while MGM China Holdings Ltd and Wynn Macau Ltd are expected to maintain stable market shares.

Conversely, a decline in market share is indicated by Jefferies for SJM Holdings Ltd over the same period, due to the closure of its satellite casinos and the “slower-than-expected” progress in ramping up operations at Grand Lisboa Palace.

In a related update on September 3, brokerage CLSA also raised its GGR forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1.3% and 3.5%, to HKD245.7 billion and HKD255.6 billion, respectively.

Earlier in July 2025, Jefferies had projected full-year GGR at MOP237 billion.