CLSA projects 5% growth in GGR, expects higher dividends in 2026

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is set to grow 5% in 2026, reaching about MOP259 billion (USD32.3 billion), according to brokerage firm CLSA.

This forecast reflects a daily average of MOP709 million, aligning closely with the MOP705 million recorded from July through October 2025.

CLSA attributes this growth to a “directionally stronger renminbi” against the dollar and “improved industrial profitability in China.”

In its recent sector outlook, CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan highlight that Macau’s six concessionaires are likely to increase their dividend payouts next year. Rising revenues and improved free cash flow across the sector support this outlook.

The report projects recurring free cash flow to equity holders (FCFE) of USD4.2 billion in 2026, remaining in line with 2025 levels. However, total dividend payments are expected to climb to USD2.9 billion.

While Melco Resorts and SJM Holdings have yet to resume dividends following the pandemic, CLSA anticipates that Galaxy Entertainment Group, MGM China, and Sands China will increase their dividend payments.

The analysts wrote, “On a balanced view (earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet profile), we still believe Galaxy and MGM China have the deepest pockets to raise dividend payout ratios in 2026.”

Regarding Sands China, CLSA expects dividends to be supported by recurring free cash flow. “Dividends should still increase, most notably at Sands China [Ltd] and Melco [Resorts & Entertainment Ltd],” while Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. and MGM China Holdings Ltd. “have the deepest pockets to raise payout ratios.”