Lynzy Valles
There are some pretty baffling weather trends here in Macau.
Sometimes it is the rain that occasionally pours on hot sunny days, or the sun that shines brightly in the middle of inclement weather; not forgetting the extreme humidity in this region that we experience in all of its four seasons.
If one has lived here for long, one would agree that Macau’s weather is just constantly iffy.
On regular days, the region’s weather bureau is pretty accurate for the most part. That’s because they try – and are mandated, like the other weather forecasters – to provide the most accurate forecasts possible.
Yet last Friday’s forecast led many to question “where is typhoon signal number 8?” after the Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) hoisted the signal to T8 from T3 at 8:30 a.m.
Due to the announcement, bridges and other links between the peninsula and Taipa closed from 10 a.m. Events in the region were cancelled, including the notable 21st International Fair.
Typhoon Haima lashed China after killing over a dozen in the Philippines, leaving a man dead in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong reports said the late-season typhoon may have cost the city an estimated HKD5 billion worth of losses. Its airport was left with hundreds of cancelled or delayed flights, meaning that the typhoon had hit the neighboring region hard.
Meanwhile, Macau’s T8 signal caused many to question and criticize the bureau’s incorrect assessment of the territory’s weather situation.
Back in August this year, when Typhoon Nida assailed the region with severe heavy rains and strong winds, the bureau only hoisted the T3 signal. Several local newspapers put the controversy on its front page.
SMG said in an email to the Times that it had “not ruled out the possibility of hoisting a higher signal” after raising it to T3.
Following the criticism and complaints of local residents, SMG called a press conference to state that the “weather was not rough enough to justify a T8 typhoon signal.”
The decision was reportedly made on the basis of “scientific data, knowledge and experience.”
Equations for weather forecast models are integrated with wind speed, temperature, geographic features, and many other factors. I reckon that calculations have become so complex that only updated and efficient supercomputers are able to solve them.
In general, there are cities where the weather has always been unpredictable. The region may just be a victim of being located in an area where changes in the climate are unforeseeable.
Yet if the bureau claims that it uses 15 meteorological stations that are ‘perfectly operational’ to provide a ‘forecast as precise as possible’, I hope it upgrades its stations to provide accurate data.
I agree that the bureau aims to guarantee public safety. But since it has issued several wrong calls, particularly this year, there is an urgent need to update its systems to a more efficient and precise one.
We all rely on these weather forecasts whether we want to or not, so residents demand timely and quality information.
Apparently, the public is starting to lose confidence in the bureau’s weather calls.
Meteorological services are expected to run a tight ship when it comes to their observational station networks.
Be it the lack of meteorological services or updated technology to keep pace with precise data gathering, or even a shortage of trained personnel, I reckon the MSAR ought to invest in strengthening the bureau’s observational station networks on a massive scale. (That is, if it is even one of their concerns.)
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