If Covid-19 infections remain stable in Macau and the mainland, the city should be revitalized and thus the Prosperity Index will rise in November and December, the Macau Economic Association forecast in a statement.
The association expects the Prosperity Index for November to return to above 3.0, a benchmark level to identify the vitality of the economy, with 3.1 points. The prediction for the Index in December is even higher, at 3.2 points.
The association stressed that the two months are traditionally high season for Macau, with series of events, such as the Grand Prix, the Food Festival, the Shopping Festival, in addition to two newer events this year: the Macau Lights Festival and the Drone Performance Gala.
On the basis of these events, the association expects a gradual rise in visitor arrivals, further strengthening the city’s economy.
In addition, the city’s gross gambling revenue in the first week of November was MOP1.65 billion, which equated to a daily average of MOP236 million. Although the income was only about 40% of the average across the previous five years, the trajectory of the income, as well as tourist arrivals, is still upwards.
Despite the resurgence in the number of Covid-19 cases on the Mainland, most cases were recorded in Northern China. The association pointed out that the main source of visitor is Guangdong, so it thinks the impact on Macau from the mainland cases will not be significant.
Referring to previous studies, the association noted that if disease conditions in both Macau and Guangdong are stable, visitor arrivals can reach 25% to 28% of the average across 2015 to 2019. It expects the monthly tourist arrivals in November to be between 700,000 to 800,000 counts of crossings.
The Prosperity Indices for both September and October were below 3.0, recoding only 2.8 and 2.7 respectively.
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