Extreme weather drives majority of China’s worst disasters, expert says

He Kebin

As the nation ramps up “zero-waste cities” to hit climate goals, He Kebin, professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Environment, warned at the opening of the 2026 Macao International Environmental Co-operation Forum & Exhibition (2026MIECF) that extreme weather endangers socio-economic growth.

He, who is also a council member of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED) and dean of the Institute for Carbon Neutrality, highlighted that “in China, nine out of the top 10 most severe weather events are natural disasters caused by extreme weather […] This is having a real impact on socio-economic development, both globally and in China.”

Detailing China’s climate goal progress, the professor cited pledges by the government, including the “Zero-Waste City” pilot program.

The zero-waste city program seeks to minimize solid waste, maximize recycling, and promote a circular economy.

Phase 1 ran from 2019 to 2021 in 11 prefecture-level cities, including Shenzhen and Baotou, as well as five special regions such as the Xiong’an New Area.

Phase 2, under the 14th Five-Year Plan, expanded from 2022 to 2025 to cover 133 prefecture-level cities and eight special regions.

He described the trajectory as “promising, with a peak growth rate of 7% to 10% and even greater growth expected.”

“Through these pilot programs, a governance system has been established for five major categories of waste management fees […] By 2024, more than 3,000 related pilot projects […] had been completed, with an investment of RMB 560 billion,” He said.

On minerals, the Tsinghua professor projected that “by 2040, the global demand for mineral resources and their market value to support the new energy system will be roughly equivalent to the global value and market volume of coal in 2020.”

On waste management, He noted that satellite use in this realm “is a very active area currently,” including systems “to monitor multi-level solid waste dumping.”

He added that in the past two years, “large-scale artificial intelligence models have been used to process massive amounts of data to create comprehensive models of solid waste emission sources, integrating air, space, and ground levels.” He added, “while we already possess advanced technologies, more new technologies are being introduced, primarily in infrastructure waste management.”

He advised, “we need to introduce more technological means, including the satellite AI methods mentioned earlier, to form a new level of technological support system.” According to He, combining satellite-based methods with AI-enhanced approaches would create new operational management capabilities, including enforcement at the national, provincial, and county levels.

This approach would provide technological support to better coordinate dual-carbon initiatives.

He said, “looking ahead over the next 30 to 35 years, China’s zero-waste city construction will gradually move from development to completion.”

To complete the entire process “from the initial stage to the final stage,” He estimates it will take three to five years.