Fitch: Macau’s economic growth forecast revised downward

Macau’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, down from earlier projections, as tourism returns to more normal levels, Fitch Ratings announced Tuesday. The agency also forecasts the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) to expand by 4.6% in 2025.

In its March forecast, it predicted GDP growth would slow to 6.9% in 2025 from 8.8% in 2024. At that time, the agency anticipated gross gaming revenue (GGR) to “rise more gradually to about 81% of its pre-pandemic 2019 level,” following a rebound in 2024.

Supporting this trend, data from the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) show that the SAR’s economy expanded by 8.0% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, reaching MOP103.86 billion.

This figure represents 92.6% of output during the same period in 2019.

For the first nine months of 2025, GDP grew 4.2% year-on-year to MOP301.33 billion, equivalent to 88.4% of the 2019 level, according to DSEC.

On tourism’s impact for Macau, Fitch cautioned that weaker economic conditions in Mainland China could weigh on visitor numbers, stating, “We expect that gaming tourism will continue to drive economic growth, albeit at a slower pace, because weaker economic conditions in Mainland China will increasingly weigh on Chinese tourists.”

However, the ratings agency noted that this slowdown might be offset by “favorable visa policies, continued investment in nongaming sectors, and improvements in tourism infrastructure.”

In the same report, Fitch forecast Hong Kong’s economy to grow 2.8% in 2026, slightly down from 3.1% this year, amid a recovery in financial services. Mainland China’s economy is expected to slow to 4.1% growth next year from 4.8% in 2025, affected by weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures.

It also affirmed Macau’s long-term issuer default rating at ‘AA’ with a stable outlook.