Gaming | Analysis: June growth may find lift from 2018 FIFA World Cup

Holding conservative expectations for June, analysts expect the month will round out the first half of 2019 slightly down on Macau’s gross gaming revenue from last year. But the revenue might find a boost from the subdued comparison period in June 2018, when the FIFA World Cup reportedly distracted gamblers from Macau tables.

The first five months of 2019 saw 1.6% less in gambling revenue collected compared to the equivalent period last year, despite a 21% surge in the number of visitors to the city.

Analysts expect marginal growth in June, but not enough to offset the year-on-year decline for the first two quarters.

Gross gaming revenue dipped 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019, despite strong support from the mass market segment.

Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein notes that Macau casinos will find it easier to record year-on-year growth in both June and July, because of easing comparison periods last year. It is holding its June projection of between 1% and 3% year-on-
year growth, revised from its 3% to 5% prediction from June 10.

Last year, some analysts suggested that June gross gaming revenue had been dampened by the effect of the FIFA World Cup, which reportedly drew gamblers’ attention away from Macau’s baccarat tables to football wagering. The month saw revenues climb 12.5% over June 2017, but it still fell considerably short of analysts’ predictions of between 17% and 21% growth.

The absence of a major sporting event this month may give a minor lift in year-on-year comparisons.

Other analysts maintain the view that there is little evidence to support the link between major football events and Macau gross gaming revenues.

However, it is perhaps worth noting that during the UEFA Euro 2016, which fell between June 10 and July 10, Macau revenues hit their lowest point in the gaming recession, collecting just MOP15.88 billion.

The month of June has been a consistent poor performer in recent years, recording the second-lowest monthly take in both 2018 and 2017, and the lowest in 2016.

The recent performance of the gaming sector shows signs of stabilization after years of double-digit growth in the sector before a deep contraction starting in 2014.

Most analysts expect modest single-digit growth or a minor contraction for full- year gross gaming revenue growth in 2019. The sector should perform better in 2020, they said.