Gaming Citi: GGR in Christmas and New Year to grow

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 17 days of December may reach about MOP9 billion, Citi Research forecasted in a report based on the latest industry data.

The figure suggests that the average daily GGR will be around MOP543 million, about 4% higher than the MOP520 million on average during the first 10 days of December.

The brokerage firm predicts an acceleration in GGR growth during the Christmas and New Year’s Eve holidays – despite these not being official holidays in mainland China.

Citi Research also anticipates a surge in patronage around Christmas and New Year’s Eve, boosted by a series of concerts scheduled throughout the month.

The broker has maintained its December GGR forecast of MOP17.5 billion, about 77% of December 2019 levels, implying a daily run-rate of MOP600 million for the rest of the month.

Previously, Citi Research projected Macau’s GGR to grow by 19% year-on-year to MOP216 billion in 2024.

This estimation is contingent on Macau’s visitor arrivals recovering to 85% of pre-Covid-19 levels, matching figures from the third quarter of 2023. Gaming expenses per player need to remain at the same level as 2023, with a slight increase in the time spent in Macau, according to the analysts.

This is despite China’s weakening economy affecting casinos over the past few months, which has caused price wars on player incentives and impacts on luxury spending. Analysts have nonetheless stated there is a “weak correlation” between China’s gross domestic product and Macau’s mass gross gaming revenue growth potential.

Citi Research remains optimistic about the gaming industry’s revenue growth in 2024, stating that the fundamentals continue to offer long-term value.