Macau, the world’s largest gambling hub, is on its way to seeing casino profits surge toward highs set before a Chinese government corruption crackdown drove wealthy high- rollers away.
More than two years after the Chinese restrictions sent profits tumbling, some analysts estimate that the Macau industry’s earnings could again start approaching records next year before hitting a new peak in 2019. Of course, any unexpected policy changes out of Beijing could crimp growth. But for now, the average forecast is for gaming revenue to rise 14 percent next year, a Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts shows.
VIP gamers are expected to be the biggest driver. But a flood of leisure tourists are also likely to pour in as glitzy new casinos and attractions open on Cotai – Macau’s equivalent of the Las Vegas strip. The two graphics offer a snapshot of Macau’s prospects in 2018 and beyond, and potential winners and stragglers among the casino operators.
In 2018, two new casinos from the local unit of MGM Resorts International and Hong Kong’s SJM Holdings Ltd. are set to open in Cotai. With that, all six Macau operators will have a presence on the strip that the industry has sought to transform into a family-friendly zone. The investments in European-themed resorts and fancy spas are poised to boost profitability even more next year as the companies attract more “mass-market” gamblers. These leisure tourists offer higher margins to companies because they don’t need perks like private jets or discounted hotel rooms. Visitors to the city will rise 7 percent next year, Deutsche Bank AG estimates.
Macau casino stocks surged Wednesday in Hong Kong, with several touching 2014 highs. MGM China Holdings Ltd. rose 2.3 percent in Hong Kong Wednesday, paring gains. Share of Sands China Ltd. and SJM Holdings Ltd. advanced 1.6 percent. The benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 0.1 percent.
2018 market share estimates for Macau show Galaxy and Sands China still lead
In January, MGM China opens a casino which will boast 1,400 hotel rooms, a theater that can seat 2,000 people and even one of the world’s biggest chocolate fountains. The USD3.3 billion resort will relieve pressure on the company, which has been losing market share, and Deutsche Bank analyst Karen Tang estimates the firm’s revenue will grow more than 70 percent in 2018.
Still, both MGM and SJM are latecomers to Cotai and “likely to face stiff competition,” said Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd.’s analyst Jamie Soo. By his estimates, both will stay far behind larger players like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group in overall market share. The last entrant on Cotai, SJM, has been the biggest market share loser in recent years and could drop further behind in 2018.
There are risks, of course. Macau could see another slowdown if there are any unexpected pressures on the Chinese economy and consumer spending, or if Beijing makes any unforeseen moves to curb capital outflows.
At the moment, though, analysts are predicting steady growth for 2018. Morgan Stanley analysts, for instance, project the sector’s earnings could rise to about USD8.4 billion in 2018 before reaching an all-time high of $9.6 billion in 2019. Daniela Wei, Bloomberg
The top four
The big four – Sands, Galaxy, Wynn Macau and Melco Resorts & Entertainment – are likely to stay fairly stable in their market share. The largest two, Sands and Galaxy, are each expected to increase adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, by at least 11 percent next year over 2017 forecasts, analyst data compiled by Bloomberg show.
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