Gaming | Trump connections may make Macau ‘collateral damage’ in potential trade war

Nelson Rose

A world-renowned expert on gambling and gambling law claimed yesterday that the ascendance of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could result in the MSAR becoming collateral damage in a potential trade dispute between China and the U.S.

Speaking at the 6th Annual Review of Macau Gaming Law, hosted yesterday evening at the Rui Cunha Foundation, Nelson Rose said that the threat of escalation between the U.S. and China is very real and, “for Macau, this means that there is inevitable clash coming.”

“What will the escalation lead to?” asked Rose yesterday during his presentation, titled “The Impact of the U.S. Election on Tourism, Trade and Possibly World War III.” “One possibility is an actual shooting war [but] I think [it is more likely] that there will be a trade war. If there is a trade war, will it mean visa restrictions on Chinese [nationals] re-imposed?”

Rose argued that the gaming sectors of Nevada and Macau would be attractive targets for China if the mainland decided to retaliate against Trump’s rhetoric.

He said that if China wants to retaliate against Trump’s policy, the gaming industry would “be a natural fit” given Trump’s connections to this sector and the fact that he draws significant support from benefactors Steve Wynn and Sheldon Adelson.

“If China wanted to send a message […] it would be really simple for them to impose visa restrictions on Chinese citizens preventing them from traveling to Nevada and Macau.”

The gaming expert said that Chinese tourism today has been made possible by a policy decision in 2004, which permitted mainland Chinese nationals to travel individually, without requiring them to join a travel group.

“What this did was to open the world to Chinese tourists,” said Rose. “By far they are the largest number and spenders of any country in the world – not even counting Hong Kong which is now [itself] 10th on the list of world spenders.”

“The danger is that Macau is obviously vulnerable. This is a gambling jurisdiction where the regulation of the players is more important than the regulation of the casinos.”

“Las Vegas is now falling into the same situation – and with the same Chinese patrons,” he added.

Rose claimed to have undertaken research on the impact of Chinese visitors to Las Vegas. He measured the revenue generated by Blackjack tables and compared that to the revenue from Baccarat tables – by far the favorite game of Chinese gamblers.

What Rose found, he explained during yesterday’s presentation, was that although there are nine times as many Blackjack tables as there are Baccarat tables in the state of Nevada, the revenue generated by the latter was around 150 percent of the Blackjack tables’ revenue

According to Rose, this demonstrates the growing dependency of the Las Vegas gambling scene on Chinese visitors, which may make the industry in the U.S. vulnerable to policy-
making in mainland China.

The Annual Review of Macau Gaming Law is now in its sixth year, having been hosted by the Rui Cunha Foundation for the last three consecutive years. Prior to the Rui Cunha Foundation hosting the event, it was based at the former campus of the University of Macau.

Correia: sub-concessionaires must go

During the Annual Review of Macau Gaming Law held yesterday at the Rui Cunha Foundation, Macau-based lawyer Sérgio de Almeida Correia reiterated concerns over the legality of the sub-concessionaires, as reported by the Times earlier this month. He said that Law 16/2001 does not provide for the existence of gaming sub-concessionaires, which are legally only used for public works and public services. “We need to put an end to the sub-concessionaire system as it creates conflicts of interests and other corrupt practices,” said Correia. “It is not acceptable to have sub-concessionaires and junkets acting as [gaming] concessionaires, according to what is outlined in the law.” Instead, Correia proposes expanding the number of concessionaires to six ahead of the termination of their contracts between 2020 and 2022.