HK OBSERVER: Pandora’s Box

Robert Carroll

From the perspective of Beijing there seems to be no going back from the National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s recommendations for universal suffrage for the 2017 Chief Executive election here. However the pan-democratic camp still has hopes that a vocal civil disobedience campaign and high profile protests may achieve more flexibility in the eventual rules.
This raises a host of questions. Does the Chinese government really believe it will get the necessary support in the legislature when it has not responded to the suggestions of the pan-democratic camp, some of whose votes they need?  Likewise when the NPC Standing Committee has not even gone as far as some of the much more modest proposals from the pro-Beijing camp in Hong Kong, can they be even sure of backing from their supporters in the geographical constituencies, who after all, have re-election on their minds?
Have both sides backed themselves into corners? Will the present stalemate last for another few years, while opponents decide how to strive for changes for the 2012 C.E. election? How will rejection of the 2017 election proposals affect proposed changes for the next Legislative Assembly election?
Is it better to keep the present flawed system, or use the same system but with every registered voter being able to choose albeit from screened candidates? Wouldn’t having universal suffrage mean that Chief Executive candidates have to work much harder to get popular support? Are the officials at the China Liaison Office accurately reflecting what is happening here, or willing to speak their minds to their superiors in the Chinese capital, who may not be willing to face unwelcome realities likewise the big business sector petitioning Beijing?
Won’t the secondary and tertiary level student population become more politically active and attracted to more radical politics, or alternatively feel powerless and become apathetic; similarly the population at large? Will Beijing use economic and financial tools negatively to pressure Hong Kong? Will Beijing try to squeeze the territory into submission by other means such as, more infiltration and pressure within the mass media to toe the line as well as attempting to muffle academics?
Will the pan-democracy movement begin a slow decline or be re-energized. Likewise will the pro-China parties who depend more on aging voters see a decline? If the two main political groups lose support will more centrist parties step into the breach as has happened in a number of mature parliamentary democracies?
Will there be a political party law to enable government to be by majority party or a ruling coalition, to get beyond the current political stalemate between the legislature and the executive? Will popularly elected legislators in future be able to successfully introduce legislation as private members bills without the blocking hurdle of legislators elected in small circle elections from functional constituencies?
What a Pandora’s box we have open here.