Iberian country set for rare presidential runoff as populist leads polls

Ventura, Marques Mendes and Seguro campaign outdoors [AP Photo]

Portugal is heading toward its first presidential runoff in four decades, according to the latest polling, in a contest that pits an anti-establishment populist against more familiar, institution-minded figures and underscores the country’s unsettled political mood after years of instability.

An official poll released mid-week by public broadcaster RTP and cited by Bloomberg projects André Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega party and currently the most prominent opposition figure in parliament, winning about 24% of the vote in Sunday’s first round. He is narrowly ahead of António José Seguro, the former leader of the center-left Socialist Party, on 23%. João Cotrim de Figueiredo, a former head of the Liberal Initiative who was elected to the European Parliament in 2024, trails in third place with roughly 19%.

Under Portugal’s constitution, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to win outright. If no one clears that bar on Jan. 18, the top two will advance to a runoff three weeks later, on Feb. 8. With polling fragmented and a record field of candidates competing, a second round now looks less like a contingency and more like the main event.

The race has drawn an unprecedented 11 contenders, a crowded lineup that reflects both voter disillusionment with traditional parties and the appeal of outsiders promising sharper rhetoric or a break with convention.

Among those also attracting attention is Henrique Gouveia e Melo, a retired admiral running as an independent, who earned widespread public trust for overseeing Portugal’s swift COVID-19 vaccination rollout during the pandemic. Another notable contender is Luís Marques Mendes, a veteran figure from the center-right Social Democratic Party, which currently leads the government.

While the presidency in Portugal is largely ceremonial, focused on representing the country abroad and safeguarding democratic institutions, it carries significant reserve powers. The president can veto legislation, refer laws to the Constitutional Court and, in extreme circumstances, dissolve parliament and call snap elections. Traditionally, occupants of the office have exercised those powers sparingly, cultivating a restrained, consensus-driven style designed to stand above day-to-day political battles.

That convention is being tested by Ventura’s rise. Campaigning on anti-corruption, nationalism and a hard line on immigration, he has embraced a confrontational tone that departs sharply from the presidency’s low-key traditions. In December, a court ordered him to remove campaign posters targeting the Roma community, a ruling that highlighted ongoing tensions between his rhetoric and Portugal’s legal safeguards against discrimination.

Seguro, by contrast, has positioned himself as a steady institutionalist, promising continuity with the presidency’s moderating role and emphasizing respect for constitutional norms. His candidacy appeals to voters uneasy about political volatility but wary of empowering a more polarizing figure. Cotrim de Figueiredo, a former businessman, offers a different alternative, advocating economic reform, reduced state intervention and a more assertive use of presidential influence to push for modernization.

The likelihood of a runoff comes against a backdrop of unusual political turbulence. Portugal held three general elections in three years, culminating in a vote last May that marked the country’s most unstable period in decades. The next president will inherit that fragile landscape, with an implicit mandate to encourage compromise and prevent further institutional gridlock.

Several contentious issues are already lining up for presidential scrutiny. One is a proposed bill tightening the rules on who can obtain Portuguese citizenship and under what circumstances it could be revoked. The Constitutional Court struck down an earlier version of the legislation last month, sending it back to parliament.

Labor reforms proposed by the government have sparked street protests and a major strike, while a law permitting euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide – approved by parliament in 2022 – remains stalled by constitutional objections and could again land on the president’s desk.

For many voters, the election is less about day-to-day policy than about the tone and guardrails of Portuguese democracy. Nearly 11 million people are eligible to vote, and turnout will be closely watched as a measure of public engagement after years of political churn. A runoff featuring Ventura would mark a symbolic break with four decades of first-round presidential victories and underscore the extent to which populist forces have entered Portugal’s political mainstream.

Whether the eventual winner is a traditional consensus-builder or a figure promising a louder, more combative presidency, the election is shaping up as a referendum on how much change Portuguese voters are willing to tolerate in one of the republic’s most symbolic offices. If the polls are right, that decision will not be settled in a single Sunday – and the real contest may only begin in February.

*With Agencies

Voting abroad, Macau

For Portuguese voters living abroad, presidential elections remain a test of patience and geography. Unlike legislative elections, where emigrants can vote by post, ballots for the presidency must be cast in person, a rule that limits participation in the two overseas constituencies – Europe and Fora da Europa (Out of Europe).

Roughly 1.5 million Portuguese citizens are registered as residents abroad, spread across the two circles. Europe accounts for the larger share, reflecting long-established communities in countries such as France, Switzerland, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom. Fora da Europa covers a far wider map – from the Americas to Africa, Asia and Oceania.

In Macau, Portuguese citizens take part in the presidential election within the Fora da Europa constituency, which groups voters living outside Europe (637, 000). By the latest overseas figures, around 45,000–50,000 Portuguese voters are registered in Macau, making it the largest Portuguese community in Asia and a heavyweight within this otherwise far-flung Fora da Europa electoral circle.

Yet voter participation in the MSAR usually amounts to only a few hundred or a few thousand ballots.

For this election, voting in Macau will take place in person at Portugal’s General Consulate, over Saturday and Sunday.