Jefferies forecasts 5% GGR growth for casinos in 2026

Jefferies analysts project Macau’s gross gaming revenue to rise by 5.3% in 2026 to MOP260.6 billion, following 2025’s full-year result of MOP247.4 billion, up 9.1% year-on-year.

The forecast, detailed in a research note published yesterday, attributes its outlook to expected growth in both VIP and mass-market segments.

VIP revenue is expected to climb 2%, while mass gaming revenue jumps 6.6% to MOP191.26 billion (USD23.89 billion).

Jefferies links this increase to Macau’s visitor numbers shattering records, with 2025 surpassing 40 million arrivals. However, despite pushes for longer stays and higher rollers, Macau’s average spend per visitor remains steady at MOP6,207.

Of the concessionaires observed by Jefferies, Sands China emerges in the pole position, with the firm revising its 2026 revenue estimate up 2% to HKD65.11 billion ($8.35 billion), reflecting a 0.5 percentage-point market share gain to 24.4% in Q4 2025. Galaxy Entertainment follows at HKD53.28 billion, up 1%, after boosting its share by 1.7 points to 22.1%. MGM China trails but targets HKD36.69 billion, with a 0.7-point share increase to 16.5%.

Wynn Macau and SJM Holdings lost ground, dipping to 12.2% and 10.7% respectively, though both retain Buy or Hold ratings from Jefferies – Buy for Galaxy, Sands, MGM, and Wynn; Hold for SJM.

The analysts indicate that Sands China prioritizes absolute EBITDA over margins, targeting a US$2.7 billion run rate: US$1 billion each from Venetian and Londoner, US$300 million from Parisian and Four Seasons, and US$100 million from Sands Macao.

Ahead of Galaxy’s Phase 4 expansion in 2027, the analysts note that management at Galaxy eyes a sustained 20-22% market share before its opening. The Cotai flagship is forecast to drive HKD48.48 billion in group GGR, up 11%, strengthened by “smart tables” for targeted play. On the Macau Peninsula, renovations at StarWorld are expected to take longer than the initial 1-2 years originally planned, the analysts noted.

Jefferies notes that MGM China is expected to continue its focus on premium mass, supported by its September-opened Alpha Club on the peninsula and its cigar lounge. Jefferies notes that “there is no other such offering on the peninsula.”

MGM Cotai’s Mansion One venue will gain 63 new suites through the conversion of 160 standard rooms – most with two bedrooms – by the first half of 2026. The project aims to enhance luxury accommodations alongside a revamp of the property’s second level into a premium mass gaming area to attract high-end players.

For MGM China, overall GGR is seen rising 7% to HKD41.34 billion ($5.17 billion), led by 6% Cotai growth to HKD23.05 billion ($2.88 billion) and 8% peninsula growth to HKD16.3 billion ($2.04 billion).

At Wynn, Jefferies notes that it plans to complete its Wynn Palace Chairman’s Club before Chinese New Year, adding that the Wynn Tower floors on the peninsula side are also ‘close to completion.’ A Wynn Palace Event and Entertainment venue awaits approval for a planned 2028 debut.

At SJM, Jefferies highlights the company’s aim to form the ‘largest integrated resort on the peninsula’ by merging Grand Lisboa and Hotel Lisboa properties into 1,500 rooms, while extending Casino Lisboa by 7,504 square meters for an early 2026 opening. Analysts add that relocated tables from closed satellites will strengthen its Macau sites and Cotai’s Grand Lisboa Palace.

Gaming revenue to moderate as market enters consolidation phase: S&P

The gaming industry is expected to see slower growth in 2026 as the sector transitions from post-pandemic recovery to a more mature phase, according to a report released by S&P Global Ratings.

The institution forecasts indicate gross gaming revenue (GGR) will expand moderately, with year-on-year growth projected at 3% to 7%, remaining below pre-pandemic levels.

Analysts Flora Chang, Rivka Gordon and Melissa A Long attribute the slowdown to several structural factors, including near-capacity hotel occupancy, limited expansion of gaming floors, and the gradual return of casual mass-market player.

While economic pressures in mainland China, including tighter fiscal policies and moderating consumer spending, could affect leisure travel, Macau’s premium mass segment remains resilient, supporting steady gaming demand.

Analysts noted that this segment has been the primary driver of GGR stability throughout 2025.

Despite the slower revenue growth, profitability for major operators is expected to remain solid. EBITDA for listed gaming companies is forecast to increase around 5%, supported by disciplined promotional strategies, modest wage growth, and stable mass-market participation. LV