Kapok | Better tomorrows

Eric Sautedé

Schizophrenia seems to be a pathological feature of our modern time, and present day Macau is no exception. On the one hand, gaming revenues have been taking an ever steeper dive for a continuous nine-month streak; on the other, the body of citizens appears to be unfazed by this fairly distressing situation – at least it would be distressing in any other part of the world – and still professes to be mainly and overly concerned by social and welfare issues in anticipation of the Chief Executive’s policy address of March 23. What is wrong with the people, some ask? Is it blindness? Are people too spoiled? Have they lost track of reality and become impervious to imminent danger because of recent (tremendous) successes? Or is it the confidence that they have in the government? Are the soothing words of Chui Sai On and Lionel Leong Vai Tak that powerful? Or is this unfazed reaction due to the casino tycoons’ take on the situation that everything is “according to expectations” and in line with the necessary “adjustment”, which seems to be the new fashionable buzz word accommodating the “new normal” formula for Macao? Could it be the situation itself – not as catastrophic as some would want it to be, but still more challenging than some would like it to be?
Let’s be honest, the results of a survey that was conducted by the Association of Macao New Vision 澳門新視角學會 about the concerns of the people and what they expect from the coming policy address came as a bit of a surprise. The ten most pressing issues, in order, are: First, a hastening of the construction of public housing; second, the strengthening of the supervision of bus services in order to solve traffic congestion issues; third, the extension of measures to control the real-estate market; and thereafter, in order, the acceleration of healthcare reform, measures to rein in inflation, controlling labor imports and protecting local employment, increasing social welfare spending, strengthening people’s training, improving education and (lastly!) promoting a diversification of the economy. When probed according to categories, people want public policies addressing social issues (72.4%), with economic policies coming a distant second (16.6%) and political and legal demands a very distant third (3.6%). As the survey was conducted in February, before the official announcement of the February plunge in gross gaming revenues (the worse drop in the past nine months), one could reasonably assume that the results could prove slightly different if the survey was to be conducted now.
Lionel Leong, being the Secretary for Economy and Finance, was the first one to react and downplay the flashing red numbers on March 3: What is characterized as a simple “decline” is said to be “in line with expectations” and a recovery – deemed not so miraculous – should occur “within one or two months.” The next day, it was Chui Sai On’s turn to comment, with the CE strongly insisting that the decline was not a threat to state capacity, and that sufficient fiscal reserve would allow the government to allocate public expenditure to welfare measures as budgeted (as if anybody doubted that, given the fact that Macao’s government is endowed with the equivalent of eight years of expenditure at constant spending, and that without even receiving any revenue). Then, of course, casino moguls, most of them in Beijing for the “two meetings” 兩會, commented that the “adjustment” was needed and that no sacrifice would be sufficient for making the dream of transforming Macao into a “world center” (for tourism and entertainment) and a “platform” (for cooperation, both regionally and with Portuguese-speaking countries) come true.
Ultimately, with an actual unemployment rate desperately locked at 1.7%, the prospect of some 20,000 new jobs created by Galaxy Phase II and Macau Studio City, and with the number of visitors having passed the 30-million threshold – why would the people worry that much about a few junkets closing down (there’s clearly too many of them anyway) and plummeting gaming revenues, when in this miserable month of February 2015 these are still roughly the same as the whole year of 2002? And then, it is very fine for Macao residents to have (on paper) the fourth-highest GDP per capita in the world, and yet only be endowed with public services that are not even a match for, let’s say, the capital city of Guangxi, Nanning. Confidence in the government, as shown in a Hong Kong University survey back in December, was in the doldrums, so it does not seem that much of a surprise that people would now trust the new team, which was ushered in two months ago, to take the right steps in addressing some very pressing issues.