Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict gross gaming revenue in Macau will contract year-on-year during every month of the fourth quarter. The decline will be driven by a softening of demand for VIP gambling but may include moderation in the mass market segment.
Macau gross gaming revenue amounted to 220.3 billion patacas over the first three quarters of 2019, down 1.7% compared to a year earlier. Revenue during the fourth quarter of 2018 climbed 8.8% year-on-year to reach MOP78.8 billion.
“We expect fourth-quarter 2019 revenue growth for both mass and VIP [segments] to decelerate compared to the first nine months of 2019, driven by a high [2018] base, lower [tally of] overnight visitors and general economic slowdown,” noted analysts at the firm.
Morgan Stanley’s projections show that gross gaming revenue will fall by 6% year-on-year in October, followed by 9% declines in November and December. Based on these predictions, revenue in the fourth quarter of this year will fall 8% compared to a year earlier.
September’s 0.6% gross gaming revenue growth closed out the weakest quarter of the year to date, with revenue down 4.1% year-on-year, versus 0% growth in the second quarter and a 0.5% contraction in the first. DB
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