The Large-scale Epidemic Intelligent Forecast and Early Warning System Research Center, an academic unit within the Faculty of Innovation Engineering of the Macau University of Science and Technology (MUST), has developed a forecasting model that predicts that, by May this year, a small-scale Covid-19 outbreak will likely take place.
According to the explanation from Hon Chi Tin, an associate professor at the MUST Faculty of Innovation and Engineering, it is estimated that by then the level of immunity of a significant group of people in Macau will have weakened such that they will be more likely to suffer reinfection.
Nonetheless, experts involved in the research, including the pneumology department of the Conde de São Januário Hospital Center, believe that the impact will not be of great concern and that, at the peak of the predicted outbreak, only approximately 5% of the population will be infected.
The same group of experts also said that unlike what happened at the end of last year, this time the speed of viral transmission will be much slower, with a maximum peak of about 6,000 people per day (about 1% of the population) expected.
During the presentation to the media of the findings, Hon also said that during last year’s outbreak, it was estimated that each infected person spread the virus to between nine and 12 people.
According to the calculations made, at the moment, eight out of nine adults in Macau have already been infected with the virus.
In the last seven days, official reports note 14 infections with Covid-19 which required hospitalization under the care of the Health Bureau (SSM). The Novel Coronavirus Response and Coordination Center also reported one new death of a person infected with Covid-19 on Wednesday (February 1). This raises the death tally to a total of 120 since the start of the pandemic.
On most days reported on in the last few weeks, only one or two cases per day have been detected, with the only exceptions to this January 27 (3 cases) and February 1 (5 cases).
According to official figures, which, since June last year, had only recorded cases of serious infections which required hospitalization and medical treatment, Macau had until yesterday a total of 3,493 cases, from which 3,357 patients have fully recovered.
From the same figures it is possible to note that the peak period of the infection occurred between December 22 and 28 of last year, with the highest point reached on December 28, with 370 new cases recorded in a single day.
The day on which Macau recorded the highest number of active cases at the same time was December 23, with a total of 909 cases.
