November casino revenue projected at MOP20.5 billion

The city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to reach MOP20.5 billion in November, according to recent industry reports, as early-month figures point to a modest decline compared with October’s peak.

HSBC Research noted that for the first nine days of November, daily gaming revenue averaged MOP 711 million, down 4% week-on-week and 8% compared with October.

The decline, analysts said, reflects typical seasonal trends rather than a weakening market. Visitor numbers remained robust in the third quarter, rising 14% year-on-year, with mainland Chinese tourists up 17%.

Day-trippers now account for 58% of all visitors, up from 54% last year, which has moderated per-capita spending.

Non-gaming revenue per mainland visitor narrowed its year-on-year decline to 5% in Q3 from 15% in Q2. Both overnight and day-trip visitors saw growth in per-capita non-gaming spending, up 3-4% annually, reversing the trend of recent quarters.

Citigroup’s sector report echoed the figures, noting that November’s first nine days generated approximately MOP6.4 billion in GGR,

The outdoor Waterbomb Macau music festival over the past weekend may have helped limit the decline in gaming revenue relative to expectations.

Industry sources indicate that VIP room revenue fell 4-6% month-on-month, while mass-market table revenue decreased 7-9%.

VIP dealer win rates were reportedly slightly higher than normal, which may have offset part of the slowdown. Analysts remain cautious but have maintained a full-month forecast of MOP20.5 billion, implying an average daily GGR of about MOP 671 million for the remainder of November.

Fiscal surplus rises nearly 20%

The Financial Services Bureau reported that gaming tax revenue reached MOP77.47 billion in the first 10 months of this year, up 6.1% from MOP73.04 billion in the same period last year, with an execution rate of 87.5%. Gaming taxes accounted for 84% of total recurrent revenue, which rose 3.3% year-on-year to MOP92.6 billion. Including capital revenue of MOP446 million, total revenue reached MOP93.05 billion.

Recurrent expenditure fell slightly to MOP61.56 billion, while capital spending totaled MOP14.23 billion, leaving a fiscal surplus of MOP17.26 billion, nearly 20% higher than last year.