JP Morgan flags ‘not so Golden Week’ and cuts October gaming forecast

Macau’s gaming sector is experiencing ongoing difficulties, according to the latest analysis by J.P. Morgan. The report notes that a combination of economic and regulatory pressures continues to affect the sector, resulting in persistent challenges for operators and investors.

Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian highlighted yesterday that October’s Golden Week numbers are coming in soft, noting that the period’s results appear “not so golden,” with revenues down 5% year-over-year.

They forecast near-term stock fluctuations to remain “choppy” until demand growth accelerates to double digits, expected from December through the first quarter of 2026, supported by easier year-over-year comparisons.

The JP Morgan analysts attribute this temporary setback to typhoon disruptions, a softer mass market affected by the timing of Mid-Autumn Festival celebrations, and the potential diversion of high-end players to Singapore for its Grand Prix races held from October 3 to 5 this year, instead of the usual September slot.

Despite these setbacks, the analysts remain cautiously optimistic. “We’re not throwing in the towel, however: we see these as speed bumps, not roadblocks, and still see significant value even as we trim estimates,” they wrote.

The report points out that while gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached a post-COVID high with a 13% year-over-year increase in the third quarter, monthly momentum was uneven, ending the quarter with a weaker pace.

Sequential growth of 2% aligns with historical seasonality that typically ranges between 1% and 2%. Margins remained relatively stable despite disruptions from 33-hour casino shutdowns caused by Super Typhoon Ragasa.

JP Morgan has lowered its GGR forecast for October to a range of 3% to 6% growth year-over-year, down from an earlier estimate of 11% to 13%. Their forecast for the fourth quarter has also been reduced to 9% growth from 13%.

“With the usual noise and margin of error in consultant checks, we don’t view the Golden Week data as a conclusive red flag for fundamentals,” they wrote. “The sector warrants further monitoring in the coming weeks before calling a trend.”