October gaming revenue hits record high

Gaming revenue soared in October, marking a 6.6% year-on-year increase, thanks to a surge in visitors during China’s Golden Week holiday, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau revealed late last week.

The city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP20.8 billion (USD2.6 billion), the highest since the pandemic halted travel.

According to a Bloomberg report, the numbers align with analysts’ predictions and represent a 20% rise over September’s revenue, although they remain 21% below pre-pandemic levels from 2019.

During the seven-day Golden Week holiday, Macau saw a significant influx of visitors, with average daily tourist numbers reaching nearly 142,000 — surpassing 2019 levels.

September alone saw 2.5 million arrivals, roughly 91% of pre-pandemic figures, with most tourists arriving from mainland China.

In addition to the Golden Week boost, casinos benefited from concerts by popular Hong Kong and Korean artists in late October, which resulted in another Golden Week for the operators, drawing additional crowds, industry analysts said.

However, the gaming industry is facing regulatory challenges as China tightens its stance on capital outflow and money laundering.

Macau’s legislature recently criminalized unlicensed money exchanges, a practice common around casinos.

Adding to the city’s regulatory shift, former judge Sam Hou Fai, elected as the new leader in October, has expressed concerns over the gaming industry’s dominant influence, signaling a possible push for economic diversification.

Meanwhile, the financial impact on casino operators has been mixed.

The Bloomberg Intelligence index of Macau casino operators dropped 11.4% in October, and the Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong’s main benchmark, declined 3.9%, reflecting investor caution amid regulatory uncertainties. 

According to analysts at JP Morgan, GGR could continue to grow by 2% to 3% quarter-on-quarter.

“This looks pretty impressive to us, considering headwinds from weak macro and consumer sentiment,” noted JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li in their report.

Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky is even more optimistic, forecasting a 6.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in GGR for Q4, projecting it to reach MOP59.1 billion.

He expects November revenues to dip by month-on-month, although this would still represent a 17% increase compared to November 2023.

For December, Umansky has predicted a 4% month-on-month rise and a 5% year-on-year increase.

He said the base mass segment will likely benefit from recently announced stimulus measures in mainland China, which “should lead to an improvement in economic activity and consumer confidence in China in 2025.”

This could result in a stronger recovery for the base mass segment alongside continued growth in premium offerings, leading to an estimated 8% GGR growth for 2025. PC/LV