Opinions How Trump’s victory might be felt in Macau

Grant Govertsen
Union Gaming analyst

Asked how Donald Trump’s election victory might affect Macau, Union Gaming analyst Grant Govertsen assessed that the impact on the MSAR would probably be minimal but stressed that it still might be too early to tell.

“I don’t think there will be any direct impact, positive or negative,” he told the Times yesterday, “because Macau has far more ties to the Chinese economy” than to the U.S. economy.

“Unless a real trade war breaks out between the U.S. and China, or [we see] a serious decline in the value of the dollar [against other currencies], I don’t think there will be much impact,” continued Govertsen.

With regards to Trump’s dabbling in the gaming industry in Atlantic City and his connection with campaign benefactor and CEO of Las Vegas Sands, Sheldon Adelson, Govertsen only indicated that Trump “might be friendlier [toward gaming] than the average Republican” but that would probably not even affect Las Vegas all that much.

Albano Martins 
Local economist

Local economist and animal rights advocate, Albano Martins, believes that the biggest threat that a Trump White House poses to Macau is in terms of the value of the USD, and indirectly that of the HKD and MOP.

Should the USD seriously decline over the next few months as a result of instability created by the president-
elect, Martins warned that the HKD and MOP might be separated from their current link to the American currency.

“What affects Macau is less Trump himself – although he is a populist without a real agenda – but more the USA in general,” said Martins.

“Maybe a weakened dollar would be good for Macau, but only in the short term,” he added. “In the short term it might boost tourism [due to a relative reduction in prices for mainland consumers], but in the long term it will be highly inflationary because we produce nothing in Macau and import everything.”

In the event that the HKD and MOP are ‘de-pegged’ from the USD, Martins reckons that it will be unlikely that a replacement arrangement will be made with the RMB, at least “not until the yuan is fully convertible [with other currencies].”

Eric Sautede Scholar and MDT contributor

Scholar Eric Sautede told the Times that he is also of the opinion that the impact of Trump’s election victory in Macau will be minimal.

“I don’t think it will have any effect,” he said, adding the exception that it could rally “a bit more support for [Sheldon] Adelson as he contributed to his campaign.”

Sautede additionally said that it was still “difficult to predict” whether a weakening dollar might affect the city. Certainly it would do little to harm U.S. tourist numbers in Macau as “the new developments [in the MSAR] are more geared at Asian tastes rather than American ones.” DB