Our Desk | Cautious optimism after Mangkhut

Daniel Beitler

The response of the Macau government to what was undoubtedly the strongest Pacific typhoon of the year deserves to be commended, especially in its effective and timely communication during the extreme weather phenomenon. But it also shows just how underprepared we were last year, when typhoon Hato, of a similar strength, paralyzed Macau for days.

Hato played the defining role this weekend in how the city prepared for the incoming tropical storm. That was evident after the passing of a milder typhoon in the middle of last week, when residents stocked up on water, food and other essentials; a precaution that was extended to Mangkhut.

Communication was key to the government’s response this time. Lessons were learnt from Hato and updates were issued by the government every few minutes, keeping the public and media informed of developments, warnings and incidents, and helping to squash rumors.

The Macau Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) warnings earlier in the week gave advance notice to the incoming super typhoon, also providing timelines for the anticipated hoisting of signals.

Days earlier, social media was rife with netizens sharing the latest typhoon trajectory map and advice on what, and how much of what, to stock up on.

The plethora of information kept the natural disaster ahead at mind and, unlike in Hato, nobody woke up on Sunday morning to the unexpected.

That contrasts to the near radio silence from the SMG in the day or so before Hato, when it fell to traditional media and social media to put out the warnings.

This time the bureau kept up with its counterparts in Hong Kong and on the mainland; a sensible course of action since it is obviously far better to be cautious and wrong than complacent and right.

Moreover, typhoons are much easier to predict than most other natural disasters and can be monitored with a reasonable degree of accuracy a week in advance or more. That means there is little scope for a weather-monitoring facility to be caught by surprise when it comes to typhoons.

The danger lies in the confidence instilled by Mangkhut and the tendency to slip back toward complacency. Even on Sunday, the streets were far from empty. Foolhardy locals and tourists were photographed and filmed braving winds that exceeded 170 km/h for pleasure.

What is needed is a cautious kind of optimism; somewhere between respecting the destructive power of natural disasters and conviction that Macau can endure even the strongest of winds.

With any luck, Mangkhut will mark the end of this year’s peak typhoon season, and the city can move forward into next year with this sense of cautious optimism.

According to the Hong Kong Observatory, the development of the El Niño, or the warmer phase of ocean temperature oscillation, is expected to take hold by November this year, replacing the La Niña phase thought to constitute a greater landfall threat to China.

That might make typhoons in the next two to seven years milder than what we saw in 2017 and 2018.

That’s not cause for complacency, but might give the public a much-needed confidence boost – that, with the right preparations, typhoons don’t have to cost lives.